OT: MSU vs Oregon

If Sparty is going to win this game they are going to have to control the clock. They absolutely have to keep Oregon's offense off the field. To do that they have to do a really good job stopping Oregon's run game.

Oregon finished #9 in rushing offense last year averaging 273.5 rushing yards per game.

Michigan St finished #2 in rushing deffense allowing only 86.6 rushing yards per game.

They have both seemingly picked up where they left off last year (although it is too early to really tell).

I'm not going to take anything away from Sparty's rush defense, they were really good. I mean just look what they did to UM. Although.... UM's rush offense was one of the worst in the nation finishing #102. So that got me thinking, what exactly was the level of rushing talent that MSU faced last year and how did they perform against that talent.

Here is a quick breakdown of Sparty's rush defense by game last year. I threw out the Youngstown St game since they are an FCS school.



western mich
Rush  Yds = 11
Avg =  116.2
Rank = 112

south fla
Rush  Yds = 89
Avg =  88.7
Rank = 118

notre dame
Rush  Yds = 78
Avg =  151.3
Rank = 80

iowa
Rush  Yds = 23
Avg =  179.9
Rank = 50

indiana
Rush  Yds = 92
Avg =  201.8
Rank = 30

purdue
Rush  Yds = 66
Avg =  67.1
Rank = 122

illinois
Rush  Yds = 25
Avg =  139
Rank = 92

Michigan
Rush  Yds = -48
Avg =  125.7
Rank = 102

nebraska
Rush  Yds = 182
Avg =  215.7
Rank = 19

northwestern
Rush  Yds = 80
Avg =  172.4
Rank = 62

minnesota
Rush  Yds = 124
Avg =  195.2
Rank = 37

O$U
Rush  Yds = 273
Avg =  308.6
Rank = 5

stanford
Rush  Yds = 162
Avg =  207.4
Rank = 22



So basically Sparty was pretty effecient given the rushing level of their opponent on any given week. But a closer look shows that they only played four teams that had a decent rushing game and in three of those games they gave up a good chunk of rushing yards.

That makes me wonder just how well Sparty is going to perform against Oregon's rushing attack.

MSU can win this game but if Oregon runs for 175+ I think Sparty will lose the game.

Any thoughts?

I think Oregon runs for 175+. I think losing Bullugh is bigger than people want to believe.

I hope Sparty loses by 10+. I really hope it is a blowout. I would rather the B1G be left out of the 4 team playoff than to have MSU or OSU represent the league.

fishgoblue22 wrote:

I think Oregon runs for 175+.  I think losing Bullugh is bigger than people want to believe.

I hope Sparty loses by 10+.  I really hope it is a blowout.  I would rather the B1G be left out of the 4 team playoff than to have MSU or OSU represent the league.  

I agree with you 100% fish. The MSU hype is out of control right now, led by that idiot Huge, who for some reason, despite being MSUs #1 fan, is on an Ann Arbor station at drive time every day. Their schedule gets very manageable after this game, so it will definitely get worse if they win this game.

I'm with Fish.

I don't think they get blown out, per se, but Oregon controls the game from the opening kickoff and wins by 10-20 points.

Look for the opening drive. If Oregon wins the toss, I bet they take the ball. If MSU wins the toss, it may behoove them to go against the grain and take the ball themselves.

Then again I'm not a coach.

A very small part of me would like to see the spartys win, help B1G get some respect.

Then I woke up, remember how sparty fans reminded us over & over that they won Rose Bowl, had to see their sweat shirts all winter long.

Then theirs sparty BB, had to listen all winter game after game about their injuries. Hardly a mention of MM & his back injury, oh no. When sparty won B1G-tourney title game, many sparty fans wanted to put a asterisks next to M regular season title.

So FUCK SPARTY, hope Oregon kicks their ass!!! Oh yea go Va. Tech!!!

GO BLUE!!!

I think MooU wins 31-20.

booboo wrote:

A very small part of me would like to see the spartys win, help B1G get some respect.

I never have and never will care about conference respect. That is something made up by ESPN to pimp the SEC. It's a recent phenomenon. If UM wins all their gemes, they will be in the playoff. Just that simple. I'm a UM football fan. Screw sparty and screw the bucknuts.

fishgoblue22 wrote:

booboo wrote:

A very small part of me would like to see the spartys win, help B1G get some respect.

I never have and never will care about conference respect.  That is something made up by ESPN to pimp the SEC.  It's a recent phenomenon.  If UM wins all their gemes, they will be in the playoff.  Just that simple.  I'm a UM football fan.  Screw sparty and screw the bucknuts.

+1

Interesting stats but an even better idea of how good MSU's run defense was last year is if you compared what an opponent did against MSU to what they did against all opponents but MSU- that would widen the disparity. True they faced some weak run offenses and true they did give up some solid yardage to the best, but overall it was an outstanding run D. The game with Oregon will be very interesting.

shoes

wshoes wrote:

Interesting stats but an even better idea of how good MSU's run defense was last year is if you compared what an opponent did against MSU to what they did against all opponents but MSU- that would widen the disparity. True they faced some weak run offenses and true they did give up some solid yardage to the best, but overall it was an outstanding run D. The game with Oregon will be very interesting.

shoes

Another stat I heard earlier in the week:

* On rushing plays, Oregon has ran out of the zone read 44% of the time since 2011.
* As a defense, across all running plays during that same timeframe, MSU only faced the zone read 12% of the time.

I'm not sure why I find that stat so interesting, but I do.

I think MSU will hold their own, generally speaking, against the zone read. Hell, we never had any success running it over the last 4-5 years against them.

Fish wrote:

If UM wins all their gemes, they will be in the playoff. Just that simple.

I applaud your optimism. Unfortunately, winning all the games in a weak conference, against teams with no quality OOC wins WILL NOT get you an invite to the playoff. See Boise St as an example. It's just that simple.

blu4vr wrote:

Fish wrote:

If UM wins all their gemes, they will be in the playoff. Just that simple.

I applaud your optimism.  Unfortunately, winning all the games in a weak conference, against teams with no quality OOC wins WILL NOT get you an invite to the playoff.  See Boise St as an example.  It's just that simple.

Crazy. Boise St doesn't play in one of the Big 5. For an undefeated B1G team to not get into the playoff, you would have to have 5 undefeated teams. No way a 1 loss team gets in before an undefeated B1G team.

Well Fish, how many times did an undefeated Boise play for the NC and a 1 loss SEC team was there instead? Could it be the conference the play in? FSU, Oregon and Oklahoma all go undefeated. Bama has 1 loss. B1G champ undefeated. Bama is in. You know it as well as I do.

You can't compare Boise St in the WAC or whatever to the B1G. It's about the money and revenue. B1G provides it. No way a 1 loss team gets in before and undefeated team from the B1G. Won't happen.

wshoes wrote:

Interesting stats but an even better idea of how good MSU's run defense was last year is if you compared what an opponent did against MSU to what they did against all opponents but MSU- that would widen the disparity. True they faced some weak run offenses and true they did give up some solid yardage to the best, but overall it was an outstanding run D. The game with Oregon will be very interesting.

shoes

shoes that was sort of in my original post. I posted each team's yards against MSU and then their season average.

Oddly enough, the two worst rushing teams MSU played last year (purdue #122 and south florida #118) are the only teams to come close to or go over their season average.

south fla
Rush  Yds = 89
Avg =  88.7
Rank = 118

purdue
Rush  Yds = 66
Avg =  67.1
Rank = 122

Fish wrote:

If UM wins all their gemes, they will be in the playoff. Just that simple.

Agree

blu4vr wrote:

I applaud your optimism.  Unfortunately, winning all the games in a weak conference, against teams with no quality OOC wins WILL NOT get you an invite to the playoff.  See Boise St as an example.  It's just that simple.

True, this is not the BCS system. The weight of the human committee changes everything. The strength of schedule formulas don't carry the weight they used to in the old system. That said, comparing the B1G, no matter how weak it may be to the Mountain West, no matter how tough it may appeared to have gotten is still comparing apples to oranges. An undefeated team from any of the power 5 gets in no matter what.

blu4vr wrote:

Well Fish, how many times did an undefeated Boise play for the NC and a 1 loss SEC team was there instead?  Could it be the conference the play in?  FSU, Oregon and Oklahoma all go undefeated.  Bama has 1 loss.  B1G champ undefeated.  Bama is in.  You know it as well as I do.

again, this is not the BCS system. The weight of the human committee changes everything. The strength of schedule formulas don't carry the weight they used to in the old system.

fishgoblue22 wrote:

You can't compare Boise St in the WAC or whatever to the B1G.  It's about the money and revenue.  B1G provides it.  No way a 1 loss team gets in before and undefeated team from the B1G.  Won't happen.

I have to side with Fish here blu

sandyeggo_blue wrote:

wshoes wrote:

Interesting stats but an even better idea of how good MSU's run defense was last year is if you compared what an opponent did against MSU to what they did against all opponents but MSU- that would widen the disparity. True they faced some weak run offenses and true they did give up some solid yardage to the best, but overall it was an outstanding run D. The game with Oregon will be very interesting.

shoes

shoes that was sort of in my original post. I posted each team's yards against MSU and then their season average.

Oddly enough, the two worst rushing teams MSU played last year (purdue #122 and south florida #118) are the only teams to come close to or go over their season average.

south fla
Rush  Yds = 89
Avg =  88.7
Rank = 118

purdue
Rush  Yds = 66
Avg =  67.1
Rank = 122

Sandy I was saying that the overall average includes what they did against MSU, so the impact of MSU's downward effect on the average understates the disparity. I don't know by how much- but if you back out our -23 and divide by one less game, our average is better. This would be true to a lesser extent of other teams as well. It's kinda like people who say a SOS should be based on how the team ranked at the end of the season instead of when you played them. Your team gets hurt by having crushed an opponent and thereby decreasing their ranking.

wshoes wrote:

Sandy I was saying that the overall average includes what they did against MSU, so the impact of MSU's downward effect on the average understates the disparity. I don't know by how much- but if you back out our -23 and divide by one less game, our average is better. This would be true to a lesser extent of other teams as well. It's kinda like people who say a SOS should be based on how the team ranked at the end of the season instead of when you played them. Your team gets hurt by having crushed an opponent and thereby decreasing their ranking.

ahhh Ok. got it. I can probably look at those numbers and post it sometime later tonight.

I had some time so I ran the numbers now. They are...

western mich
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 11
Avg =  116.2
Avg without MSU = 125.7

south fla
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 89
Avg =  88.7
Avg without MSU = 88.6

notre dame
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 78
Avg =  151.3
Avg without MSU = 157.4

iowa
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 23
Avg =  179.9
Avg without MSU = 193

indiana
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 92
Avg =  201.8
Avg without MSU = 211.8

purdue
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 66
Avg =  67.1
Avg without MSU = 67.2

illinois
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 25
Avg =  139
Avg without MSU = 149.4

Michigan
Rush  Yds vs MSU = -48
Avg =  125.7
Avg without MSU = 140.2

nebraska
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 182
Avg =  215.7
Avg without MSU = 218.5

northwestern
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 80
Avg =  172.4
Avg without MSU = 180

minnesota
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 124
Avg =  195.2
Avg without MSU = 201.2

O$U
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 273
Avg =  308.6
Avg without MSU = 311.4

stanford
Rush  Yds vs MSU = 162
Avg =  207.4
Avg without MSU = 210.9

This Mariota cat is something special. I feel like he would have been a top 5 draft pick in the 2014 draft. For anyone who hasn't gotten to see him play yet, you're in for a treat.

I think Oregon covers, mostly because Autzen Stadium is the best home stadium in the country (in terms of noise) and that place is going to be rocking.

To everyone that thinks an undefeated B1G gets in has not been paying attention to how the committee works. They have all but said an SEC team with a loss is more deserving than a B1G team. Why is that? Look at the bowl records for the last 5 years with the automatic bids with SEC/B1G. It is not pretty. The B1G all but sucks in bowl games. Why that is will be another discussion (where the bowls are played being the number one point). But the national perception, and the records, speak for themselves. The B1G needs to start winning against the other power conferences in either OOC games or bowls. Until they do that, they are a non factor. The truth hurts sometimes.

I could care less if both bucknuts and sparty lose by 20.... I am a Meechigan fan and their fans are obnoxious and thugs, no way in hell I would ever cheer for them in any way.... GO BLUE!!!!!

Blu.... Why can't both a 1 loss SEC team and an undefeated B1G team make it?

BOLEACH7 wrote:

I could care less if both bucknuts and sparty lose by 20.... I am a Meechigan fan and their fans are obnoxious and thugs, no way in hell I would ever cheer for them in any way.... GO BLUE!!!!!

+1

The talk of an undefeated B1G team making the playoff over a 1 loss SEC team is now a moot point. The B1G is more than likely not in the playoff this year, unless there are some major losses in the other conferences.

Who cares after this game.

It's the 2nd game and the 3 top teams in the division all have 1 loss. The rose is off the thorn for PSU and Franklin. Barely won last week and snuck in another yesterday. PSU is not a factor this year based on what I have seen.