Expectations for the Program

What are your expectations for the program year in and year out. Please try to avoid falling back on the Hoke mantra of just win the conference.

I am starting to get the feeling.that I am not being realistic in my expectations for the program and I do not know where I am going wrong. Am I being unrealistic to expect Michigan to be in the top 5-7 Programs in the country? What does Michigan lack to get us there? IMO they have the financial resources, facilities and notoriety and quality education to be a top program. I believe Michigan should be in the discussion with the LSU's, Oregon's and Ohio. Of course we will not be in the NC every year but we will be in the hunt. People will not laugh at the idea that Michigan will be a contender. Michigan will never be worse than 8-4 but more often 10-2 or 11-1.

Is this unrealistic? If so, why? I think Michigan has everything that the other powerhouses have to be successful. What is holding us back?

LSU, Oregon, and ohio all blatantly cheat. Michigan, not so much.

Michigan hasn't really been a top 5-7 program since the 70s. That's something I wonder if we delude ourselves about sometimes. The hope is that Hoke and Company can return us there. As far as that goes, we're going to find out in the next year or two if that's a reasonable possibility. I can see the defense really coming together next season and becoming elite. I'm not as sure about the offense, the line is still going to be young next year.

I think that the defense will really come together later this season (hopefully) but will take a minor step-back the first third of next year. Nothing new, they'll just need to re-gel and leaders will have to immerge. The offense, oh boy...

I'm not as optimistic about the "o" either. Depending on what form Devin is able to recover we'll see. And believe it or not, I actually think that Shane may be holding us back. It's a relatively simple difference, going from right-handed Devin to left-handed Shane, but that does make everything backwards. Imagine trying to track someone looking in a mirror but facing the opposite direction. It's not something that cannot be over-come but it'll take time. And then there will be from left-handed Shane to a (probably) right-handed successor.

2ndComingOfBo wrote:

I think that the defense will really come together later this season (hopefully) but will take a minor step-back the first third of next year.  Nothing new, they'll just need to re-gel and leaders will have to immerge.  The offense, oh boy...

I'm not as optimistic about the "o" either.  Depending on what form Devin is able to recover we'll see.  And believe it or not, I actually think that Shane may be holding us back.  It's a relatively simple difference, going from right-handed Devin to left-handed Shane, but that does make everything backwards.  Imagine trying to track someone looking in a mirror but facing the opposite direction.  It's not something that cannot be over-come but it'll take time.  And then there will be from left-handed Shane to a (probably)  right-handed successor.

A QBs strong hand has nothing to do with holding a team back.

jjabilene wrote:

Michigan hasn't really been a top 5-7 program since the 70s. That's something I wonder if we delude ourselves about sometimes. The hope is that Hoke and Company can return us there. As far as that goes, we're going to find out in the next year or two if that's a reasonable possibility. I can see the defense really coming together next season and becoming elite. I'm not as sure about the offense, the line is still going to be young next year.

Yup. It's not hard to name 7 programs that have been better than Michigan since 1980.

Bringing the thread back on topic-What are your expectations for the program year in and year out?

Am I being unrealistic to expect Michigan to be in the top 5-7 Programs in the country? Not in the 80's.  Not 10 years ago.  Not 5 years ago.  Now.  What does Michigan lack to get us there? IMO they have the financial resources, facilities and notoriety and quality education to be a top program. I believe Michigan should never be worse than 8-4 but more often 10-2 or 11-1.

Is this unrealistic? If so, why? I think Michigan has everything that the other powerhouses have to be successful. What is holding us back?

fishgoblue22 wrote:

A QBs strong hand has nothing to do with holding a team back.

Are you positive about that?

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_19183941

http://www.americanfootballmonthly.com/Subaccess/articles.php?article_id=4781

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204518504574419193929188778.html

MgoBlue wrote:

Bringing the thread back on topic-What are your expectations for the program year in and year out?

Am I being unrealistic to expect Michigan to be in the top 5-7 Programs in the country? Not in the 80's.  Not 10 years ago.  Not 5 years ago.  Now.  What does Michigan lack to get us there? IMO they have the financial resources, facilities and notoriety and quality education to be a top program. I believe Michigan should never be worse than 8-4 but more often 10-2 or 11-1.

Is this unrealistic? If so, why? I think Michigan has everything that the other powerhouses have to be successful. What is holding us back?

So why are you upset about Hoke then? He went 10-2 and 8-4. He fits your criteria.

I do think that the 80's, 90's, and 2000's, are relevant for setting a bar for Michigan. Michigan wasn't a top 7 program in the 80s/90s and definitely not in the 2000s. You don't think it is a bit unrealistic to demand top 7?

My expectations for Michigan:
Be one of the 3 best programs in the Big 10.
Play in at least 1 BCS bowl game once every 2-3 years.
Play in at least 1 NC game every 10 years.

What does Michigan lack? Michigan lacks the HS talent pool. Texas, Florida, California, and Ohio are absolutely littered with elite D1 players. It is much, much, easier to keep kids in state than to get them to leave their home states.

What does Michigan lack? Michigan lacks favorable geography. What is easier, convincing elite Florida recruits to Michigan walk to class in Michigan winters? Practice and play in freezing temperatures? Or convincing Michigan kids to come spend 3 years in Florida and enjoy the Florida sun and Florida women?

What does Michigan lack? Recent success. Michigan was a laughing stock during the Rich Rod years. Recruits know more about Appalachian St. than they do about Bo Schembechler.

What does Michigan lack? Easy standards. Michigan can't have it's pick of players because Michigan athletes have to be accountable in the classroom. You think they hold those same standards at Miami? USC?

Play in B1G title game every other yr. minimum. Odd calendar yrs., 2015, 2017, etc., M has OSU & MSU home, PSU away. So you hope M can beat them at home. Who knows how Maryland & Rutgers will do.

Win B1G title game minimum every 3rd yr. Of course we all want every yr or every other yr.

Final 4: Does winning B1G title guarantee a final 4 appearance? Of course we have no idea. Does 11-2, probably not, 12-1???? who knows. If not final 4, winning Rose Bowl or whatever bowl B1G champ goes to, M has to start winning against the big boys. I think that's very realistic. I think final 4 appearance every 4th yr. minimum if M wants to be considered an elite program. Gotta win it all as well.

Todays HS sophs are 15/16 yrs old, meaning they where born in 1997/1998. Meaning Bo had been retired from coaching for 8yrs. Kids where still shitting their diapers when M won title in 97'. They probably didn't completely understand football when Bo died. The point of this is, I think M was living to much in the past. Friend who works in athletic dept. gave me tour of the Big House, Crisler., around 2004/2005. The facilities at the time sucked, locker rooms small, outdated, training rooms small, just looked old. Yes the M name sells it self, the Big House, Hail to the victors, the band, the winged helmet, etc.

Night games: Todays kids love the night games, Whether its SEC games, MSU, OSU, or PAC-12. Michigan joined the party late for hosting a night games. Did the 2011 or this yrs. night game vs ND help with recruiting? Would like to think so. Personally I think M needs to have a night game or even 2 a yr. Did I read correctly DB said night game had to be a special or against a special opponent? To me that sounds arrogant, if Rutgers, Illinois or Northwestern are undefeated, so is M, why not move game to prime time? Show off the Big House every year, let HS recruits see how awesome it is.

Uniforms: I work in a high school, the kids say todays uniform are sick, the G or G money. (Expressions you learn from kids) The kids love the uniform changes, the helmets. M's uniforms for 11' ND game, game vs South Carolina, vs Bama I liked. I know some people hated them, but the point is the recruits love them. Yes, I love the traditions of Michigan, but changing them for bowl games is OK. If recruits loves them, what's wrong with altering them? Now with that said, DB or anybody else better not mess with helmets. I think that's one change that CAN NOT ever happen. I think DB or whoever in the athletic dept. has to keep up with what todays HS kids like, want. If todays kids say leave uniform alone, the leave it. If they want change,,, The adults might hate any changes, but if it helps with recruiting, why not.

The facilities: Finally Michigan caught up with everybody, including Crisler Center. There are exceptions like Oregon that are above and beyond everybody else, which helps them of course.

I think M 7-10 yrs ago philosophy was, we are M, we don't night games, we don't need to update facilities, we're M, kids will show up. I think that philosophy has finally changed.

I don't think anybody wants M to become the Miami Hurricanes of the 1980's, nobody wants M to cheat to win. But I think you have to recruit the kid who maybe who has a little edge to them, a great HS football player but who might need some guidance once on campus. SEC schools, plus OSU and others recruit kids that aren't the perfect kid, not great in school. Are they allowing kids in school, if they didn't play football, would have not qualified? Probably, is it 1 or 2 kids, or is closer to 7-10 kids? I don't know.

Non-conference schedules: Supposely NC schedule will count more towards who makes final 4. M NC schedule is very average the next few yrs. Sure they play some Pac-12 teams, but not the elite. Need to bring the big boys into the big house, of course you have to win, and go to on road to win.

With all that said, how's the coaching?: Are the players receiving the very best coaching from the assistants, are they being put in the position to win?

booboo wrote:

Play in B1G title game every other yr. minimum. Odd calendar yrs., 2015, 2017, etc., M has OSU & MSU home, PSU away. So you hope M can beat them at home. Who knows how Maryland & Rutgers will do.

Win B1G title game minimum every 3rd yr. Of course we all want every yr or every other yr.

Your post was great. Spot on. Rather than quoting the whole thing I'm just going to quote one part I slightly disagree with. I think those expectations are too high. Nebraska is an elite program that is probably on the same level as Michigan. I'd put odds at something like:
Michigan... 3:1.
Nebraska... 3:1.
MSU/Iowa/Northwestern/Minnesota... 3:1.

So I'd be content with 1 Big Ten Championship appearance every three years. Every 2 years is realistic, but if it's once every 3 years, I don't consider it a failure.

I also would change your expectation from a B1G title game win a minimum of every 3rd year to every 4th year.
Tier 1- Ohio St.: Will always be a favorite to win the B1G title.
Tier 2- Nebraska, Michigan: Will always be competing for a B1G title.
Tier 3- Wisconsin, Michigan St.: Will always be relevant in B1G title talks.
Tier 4- Penn St., Iowa: Can put together teams capable of a B1G title.
Tier 5- Northwestern, Rutgers: Have no business winning the B1G title. Very small shot, IMO.
Tier 6- Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana- Dream on.


With 5 teams that go into every season with realistic goals of winning the Big 10 Championship and then two others that have potential, I don't think a "1 championship every three years" is where we should be setting the bar.

I like how you set up the 6 tiers. Only change I would put Penn State in tier 3. With them getting schlorships back, possibly going bowling sooner, I like what O'Brien is doing & presume he sticks around, I see PSU relevant.

I know we all would like to see Sparty go away, but I think they are sticking around, agree with you, they are relevant as well.

Northwestern, this yr. might be their realistic shot. Of course we hope not, but with Neb. def. struggling, MSU no off., and M struggling these last 2 weeks, who knows.

Wonder if Rutgers & Maryland new what they got themselves into? I know they didn't join B1G just for football only, like you said, I can't see anytime soon they're relevant.

sparty lost relevancy once Captain Kirk left. They have a good D, big deal. wait until thy play a B1G team, that D won't be so great. So far they played 1 decent team in Notre Dame and lost. South Florida, Western Michigan, and Youngstown State are horrible. Purdue, Illinois, and Minnesota are their only wins during B1G play (they have outside shots of beating Iowa and Indiana).

6-6 is not relevant.

The expectation should be being the best team in the Big 10. PERIOD.

That means being better than Ohio Skate... And doing it without cheating.

So- who were the top seven teams from 1980-1999?

'shoes

wshoes wrote:

So- who were the top seven teams from 1980-1999?

'shoes

Their average final ranking in the coaches poll from 80-99 was about 11 (the 6-6 year I counted as 40th). Of course, that doesn't necessarily equate to them being the 11th best program, it's just a barometer. I will say it's a little higher than I expected. I'll have to look at some other programs when I get a chance.

Awesome stuff guys. I will have some comments when I have more time. Loving this forum!

EJinGA wrote:

The expectation should be being the best team in the Big 10. PERIOD.

That means being better than Ohio Skate... And doing it without cheating.

Agreed, 100%.

Perhaps I'm blinded by the Maize and Blue.

But I fully EXPECT us to win the Big Ten Championship every year and compete for National Championships.

I know it isn't going to happen every year, but my expectation is that we should never finish worse than second in the conference and we should always be playing on New Years Day, or better. Essentially, I expect us, at worst, to be a BCS at-large bid year in and year out. The fact of the matter is that a 11-1, 10-2 Michigan team will always be invited to play in a BCS game. And in my opinion, we should never lose more than two games a year, especially looking forward and ND dropping off the schedule.

We have more talent than everyone else in the league, save for Ohio State.

Again, perhaps my expectations are too lofty.

But they are what they are, and if/when we finish anything worse than my expectations, I consider it a lost season.

Just my personal opinion, don't crucify me for it.

Perhaps my expectations are directly tied to the timeframe/origins of when my fandom began. Being born in 1986, I really didn't care too much about anything until around '94. My first vivid Michigan football memory is riding in the car with my mother and father, listening to the Michigan vs PSU game in '94 - which we lost. I still remember the disappointment radiating from my father that day. Now I had been to games prior to that, most notably being at the ND game when Desmond went all Superman, but that '94 PSU game on the radio is my first true, vivid memory.

That being said, I really began "coming into my own" as a huge Michigan fan in 1996. That wasn't a great season, obviously, but my second season as a diehard fan....NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP.

Since that point, I've always expected us to put ourselves in that position each year.

jjabilene wrote:

wshoes wrote:

So- who were the top seven teams from 1980-1999?

'shoes

Their average final ranking in the coaches poll from 80-99 was about 11 (the 6-6 year I counted as 40th). Of course, that doesn't necessarily equate to them being the 11th best program, it's just a barometer. I will say it's a little higher than I expected. I'll have to look at some other programs when I get a chance.

You know, after looking up the performances of other programs in the 80s and 90s, I think I have to take it back and say we were a top-5 program in those decades. The consistency is what was great about the program, only finishing the year unranked twice from 1980-2007, and never having a losing record. Also, finishing the year top-5 six times in those two decades is impressive. Most programs experienced down periods somewhere during that time period, the main exceptions in the 80s and 90s were Nebraska and FSU. I think we slipped a little under Carr in the 2000s, but were still solidly a top-10 program. It's interesting how it feels like it's been longer than that to me.

wshoes wrote:

So- who were the top seven teams from 1980-1999?

'shoes

Well, considering no one said Michigan wasn't. I said it's not hard to name 7 programs better than Michigan since 1980. It's not.

From 1980-present (in no particular order)
Miami, Nebraska, Florida St., Florida, Penn St., Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio St., USC, Auburn

I'll humor you though, from 1980-1999, there were 4 teams that, without a doubt, make up the top 4.
Miami, Nebraska, Florida St., Penn St.

The 5/6/7 spots for 1980-1999 would be a combination of three of these teams, who all have an argument.
Oklahoma, Michigan, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Notre Dame, Washington

You guys really need to learn the difference between GOALS and EXPECTATIONS.

Expectation: "A strong belief that something will happen or be the case in the future."
Goal: "The object of a person's ambition or effort; a desired result."

You "expect" Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship every year? There is a difference between lofty expectations and delusional ones. Winning the Big Ten and competing for National Championships are and should always be the GOALS of the team/program. Winning the Big Ten every year should not be the expectation.

Thanks for the statistical work- My sense was that there were not clearly 7 teams better than Mich in the 80's and 90's and the stats appear to confirm that.

'shoes

wshoes wrote:

Thanks for the statistical work- My sense was that there were not clearly 7 teams better than Mich in the 80's and 90's and the stats appear to confirm that.

'shoes

Correct. It would be hard to leave Michigan out of the top 7. Those teams I listed as choices all have legitimate claims for top 7, though. It is very subjective. The top 4 are no-brainers, 5-7 is tough. I

[quote="hailtoyourvictor"

What does Michigan lack? Michigan lacks the HS talent pool. Texas, Florida, California, and Ohio are absolutely littered with elite D1 players. It is much, much, easier to keep kids in state than to get them to leave their home states.

What does Michigan lack? Michigan lacks favorable geography. What is easier, convincing elite Florida recruits to Michigan walk to class in Michigan winters? Practice and play in freezing temperatures? Or convincing Michigan kids to come spend 3 years in Florida and enjoy the Florida sun and Florida women?

What does Michigan lack? Recent success. Michigan was a laughing stock during the Rich Rod years. Recruits know more about Appalachian St. than they do about Bo Schembechler.

What does Michigan lack? Easy standards. Michigan can't have it's pick of players because Michigan athletes have to be accountable in the classroom. You think they hold those same standards at Miami? USC?

[/quote]
Great stuff. You are right about Michigan lacking all of those things. Hoke has been recruiting Ohio really well so hopefully that will translate to wins in the future. With Texas being on the decline it would be great to steal some of their talent. Regardless, I think there is still enough talent coming to AA for us to be a top program.

booboo wrote:

Play in B1G title game every other yr. minimum. Odd calendar yrs., 2015, 2017, etc., M has OSU & MSU home, PSU away. So you hope M can beat them at home. Who knows how Maryland & Rutgers will do.

Win B1G title game minimum every 3rd yr. Of course we all want every yr or every other yr.

Final 4: Does winning B1G title guarantee a final 4 appearance? Of course we have no idea. Does 11-2, probably not, 12-1???? who knows. If not final 4, winning Rose Bowl or whatever bowl B1G champ goes to, M has to start winning against the big boys. I think that's very realistic. I think final 4 appearance every 4th yr. minimum if M wants to be considered an elite program. Gotta win it all as well.

Todays HS sophs are 15/16 yrs old, meaning they where born in 1997/1998. Meaning Bo had been retired from coaching for 8yrs. Kids where still shitting their diapers when M won title in 97'. They probably didn't completely understand football when Bo died. The point of this is, I think M was living to much in the past. Friend who works in athletic dept. gave me tour of the Big House, Crisler., around 2004/2005. The facilities at the time sucked, locker rooms small, outdated, training rooms small, just looked old. Yes the M name sells it self, the Big House, Hail to the victors, the band, the winged helmet, etc.

Night games: Todays kids love the night games, Whether its SEC games, MSU, OSU, or PAC-12. Michigan joined the party late for hosting a night games. Did the 2011 or this yrs. night game vs ND help with recruiting? Would like to think so. Personally I think M needs to have a night game or even 2 a yr. Did I read correctly DB said night game had to be a special or against a special opponent? To me that sounds arrogant, if Rutgers, Illinois or Northwestern are undefeated, so is M, why not move game to prime time? Show off the Big House every year, let HS recruits see how awesome it is.

Uniforms: I work in a high school, the kids say todays uniform are sick, the G or G money. (Expressions you learn from kids) The kids love the uniform changes, the helmets. M's uniforms for 11' ND game, game vs South Carolina, vs Bama I liked. I know some people hated them, but the point is the recruits love them. Yes, I love the traditions of Michigan, but changing them for bowl games is OK. If recruits loves them, what's wrong with altering them? Now with that said, DB or anybody else better not mess with helmets. I think that's one change that CAN NOT ever happen. I think DB or whoever in the athletic dept. has to keep up with what todays HS kids like, want. If todays kids say leave uniform alone, the leave it. If they want change,,,  The adults might hate any changes, but if it helps with recruiting, why not.

The facilities: Finally Michigan caught up with everybody, including Crisler Center. There are exceptions like Oregon that are above and beyond everybody else, which helps them of course.

I think M 7-10 yrs ago philosophy was, we are M, we don't night games, we don't need to update facilities, we're M, kids will show up. I think that philosophy has finally changed.

I don't think anybody wants M to become the Miami Hurricanes of the 1980's, nobody wants M to cheat to win. But I think you have to recruit the kid who maybe who has a little edge to them, a great HS football player but who might need some guidance once on campus. SEC schools, plus OSU and others recruit kids that aren't the perfect kid, not great in school. Are they allowing kids in school, if they didn't play football, would have not qualified? Probably, is it 1 or 2 kids, or is closer to 7-10 kids? I don't know.

Non-conference schedules: Supposely NC schedule will count more towards who makes final 4. M NC schedule is very average the next few yrs. Sure they play some Pac-12 teams, but not the elite. Need to bring the big boys into the big house, of course you have to win, and go to on road to win.

With all that said, how's the coaching?: Are the players receiving the very best coaching from the assistants, are they being put in the position to win?

Again, great stuff. I agree totally about night games. We just landed a big basketball recruit and one of the things he highlighted about Michigan was the ND. Hoke and Brandon have to get their heads out of their asses about this. Like them or not they are huge recruiting opportunities. Urban has already embraced this fact and as a result Ohio has at least two night games in C-bus this year. Same with uniforms. I hate all the new uniforms, BUT if that is what kids look for then give it to them.

I expect Michigan to compete every game. 9-3 is a reasonable record. Beat MSU as much as freakin possible. Win O$U game 2-3 times or 6-10 time a decade play in the rose bowl 2 time in 5 years or a BCS of quality.