Adjusted perdiction

After watching Michigan play, and seeing the rest of the Big play. I predict Michigan's record before the BIG tournament will be 19-11 is that enough to avoid the NIT. The conference is pretty strong , but Michigan only has 1 win over a high RPI team, Illinois and Iowa are better than I thought, MSU look unbeatable and besides the get more than their share of breaks, Wisconsin proving the have something to prove , and O$U just scares me.

"If Michigan goes:
11-7 or better in conference (19-11 overall)... They are in no doubt, regardless of the Big Ten Tournament.
10-8 in conference (18-12 overall)... They are on the bubble, but in comfortably with a win in the BTT.
9-9 in conference (17-13 overall)... They are on the bubble and will need a couple BTT wins.
8-10 in conference (16-14 overall)... They are NIT bound.


Playing in a power conference is huge for SOS/RPI. The Big Ten being the best basketball conference is huge for Michigan. Last year, the two best conferences were The Big Ten and The Big East. You can use last year's tournament for some reference (though the bubble is different every year):
Villanova (Big East) finished 20-14 and was a 9 seed.
Minnesota (Big Ten) finished 20-13 and was an 11 seed.
Illinois (Big Ten) finished 23-12 and was a 7 seed.


Let's say that Michigan goes 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament (a reasonable hypothetical).

My predictions for seeding based on conference records would be:
22-10 (13-5). 5 or 6 seed.
21-11 (12-6). 6 or 7 seed.
20-12 (11-7). 7 or 8 seed.
19-13 (10-8 ). 9 or 10 seed.
18-14 (9-9). 11 seed, 12 seed, or NIT.
17-15 (8-10). NIT.

For every extra win in the Big Ten tournament, bump the seeds up by .5"

I wrote that a couple weeks ago. I don't expect to be dead on, because who we beat for those wins is a huge factor, but it should paint a pretty good picture.

The Big Ten is definitely tough this year, but that is a good thing. Michigan will pick up a few marquee wins along the way, which will boost their resume. They've done well to take care of business in the easier part of their conference schedule. Two wins on the road is good no matter who they come against. 11-7 would easily get them in, and I think that's a pretty reasonable prediction. When they get into the tough part of the conference schedule I can guarantee their will be a time when the fan base starts panicking. Even with lowered expectations, this sure beats what we had to watch prior to 2009.

jjabilene, that was my point all along with the "stalking". If fans are making doomsday posts when Michigan is losing by 7 on the road to undefeated Iowa St. and winning against Minnesota on the road, can you imagine when Michigan loses to a bad team (like we almost saw last night) or gets blown out by a better team (MSU/OSU)? It will be ugly here.

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

jjabilene, that was my point all along with the "stalking". If fans are making doomsday posts when Michigan is losing by 7 on the road to undefeated Iowa St. and winning against Minnesota on the road, can you imagine when Michigan loses to a bad team (like we almost saw last night) or gets blown out by a better team (MSU/OSU)? It will be ugly here.

I agree to an extent. Last year we all knew we had something special in our team so when we lost @ lowly PSU nobody really jumped off the deep end. Sure we got upset and questions were asked but I think most of us figured every dog has it's day and this kind of stuff happens to the best of them. If anything I think the consensus was that this was an eye opener and something to help the team refocus on our B1G play.

I don't think the confidence is at that level this year nor do I think it will get to that level so people are more apt to make those doomsday posts.

As long as I feel the team isn't giving up and the coaches are trying their best to put us in a position to win I will refrain from throwing my hands in the air and saying "F it" like the football team made me do. Bottom line, I don't anticipate this team getting me to that point this year. Not even close.

Some people definitely jumped off the deep end after that PSU game, though.

jjabilene wrote:

The Big Ten is definitely tough this year, but that is a good thing. Michigan will pick up a few marquee wins along the way, which will boost their resume. They've done well to take care of business in the easier part of their conference schedule. Two wins on the road is good no matter who they come against. 11-7 would easily get them in, and I think that's a pretty reasonable prediction. When they get into the tough part of the conference schedule I can guarantee their will be a time when the fan base starts panicking. Even with lowered expectations, this sure beats what we had to watch prior to 2009.

Completely agree.

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

"If Michigan goes:
11-7 or better in conference (19-11 overall)... They are in no doubt, regardless of the Big Ten Tournament.
10-8 in conference (18-12 overall)... They are on the bubble, but in comfortably with a win in the BTT.
9-9 in conference (17-13 overall)... They are on the bubble and will need a couple BTT wins.
8-10 in conference (16-14 overall)... They are NIT bound.


Playing in a power conference is huge for SOS/RPI. The Big Ten being the best basketball conference is huge for Michigan. Last year, the two best conferences were The Big Ten and The Big East. You can use last year's tournament for some reference (though the bubble is different every year):
Villanova (Big East) finished 20-14 and was a 9 seed.
Minnesota (Big Ten) finished 20-13 and was an 11 seed.
Illinois (Big Ten) finished 23-12 and was a 7 seed.


Let's say that Michigan goes 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament (a reasonable hypothetical).

My predictions for seeding based on conference records would be:
22-10 (13-5). 5 or 6 seed.  
21-11 (12-6). 6 or 7 seed.
20-12 (11-7). 7 or 8 seed.
19-13 (10-8 ). 9 or 10 seed.
18-14 (9-9). 11 seed, 12 seed, or NIT.
17-15 (8-10). NIT.

For every extra win in the Big Ten tournament, bump the seeds up by .5"

I wrote that a couple weeks ago. I don't expect to be dead on, because who we beat for those wins is a huge factor, but it should paint a pretty good picture.

I never would have thought I would have needed to go to 14-4 or higher in conference in my predictions. What a pleasant surprise.

sandyeggo_blue wrote:

...I don't think the confidence is at that level this year nor do I think it will get to that level...

-2 for this guy

We're playing exceptional TEAM ball right now and it makes my heart smile

Lol!

What a difference 18 days makes eh?

joe wrote:

Lol!

What a difference 18 days makes eh?

Wanna be Yooper!