Posts : 8811 Join date : 2012-02-03 Age : 49 Location : Within 10 minutes of The Big House.
Subject: Re: Michigan -15.5 Wed Sep 09, 2015 3:51 am
Oregon St. isn't that good and their top 2 WR's are questionable for Saturday. Michigan covers or Coach Harbaugh has an aneurysm on the sidelines...
fishgoblue22
Posts : 5419 Join date : 2012-01-24 Age : 55 Location : Fishers, IN
Subject: Re: Michigan -15.5 Wed Sep 09, 2015 6:04 am
Not sure I agree with that number. Quite big. Oregon State dominated Webber Tate defensively last week. I know, lower level school, but still WSU converted zero third downs.
wshoes
Posts : 3840 Join date : 2012-10-17
Subject: Re: Michigan -15.5 Wed Sep 09, 2015 8:44 am
Back when I was in a regular pick against the spread college football pool, the first 2-3 weeks of the season were a chance to separate yourself from the pack because gamblers and oddsmakers were really guessing at times as to the relative strengths of teams. 15.5 seems high to me, but then I am a Michigan fan and have suffered through the last few years. I am hoping that we are strong enough to more than justify that number.
the artist formally known
Posts : 3649 Join date : 2012-01-25 Age : 70 Location : Northern Michigan
Subject: Re: Michigan -15.5 Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:26 am
Think any time you have a double digit number its a sucker bet
sandyeggo_blue
Posts : 6174 Join date : 2012-01-23 Age : 45 Location : San Diego, CA
I think MICHIGAN will cover but here are a few key things about Oregon State that I think are worth pointing out....
OSU is starting true freshman, QB Seth Collins. I never got to see him play high school ball here in San Diego but I watched his Weber St highlights. He's the type of spread QB that has been giving MICHIGAN teams nightmares for as long as I can remember. The kid has size and speed, and while I think his passing stats are deceptive due to the fact that OSU really only has one proven receiver, he seemed comfortable standing in the pocket or running out and throwing the ball. But he's a freshman, and he'll be playing on the road and in front of 110,000 rabid fans. He'll make a mistake or two and OSU won't be able to afford any mistakes if they want to beat MICHIGAN.
The fact that OSU had all five returning starters on the Oline from last year greatly helped Collins get out of the pocket and run for 150+ yards against Weber St. MICHIGAN will struggle to contain him but he won't run for 150+. The MICHIGAN LBs are going to have their hands full this game. They better tighten up those missed tackles from the Utah game.
The OSU D has switched to a base 3-4 set. I find that a bit odd since they lost all three SR LBs from last year. Hopefully our Oline can get better in week two and figure out how to make some blocks on the Dline and gap plugging LBs. The MICHIGAN Oline needs to find a way to help our RBs fall forward for 3.5+YPC. If we see a bunch of tackles in the backfield during this game then MICHIGAN fans will likely be in for another VERY LONG season.
One positive about the OSU 3-4 scheme is, if the Oline and Rbs are making their blocks then it could allow Ruddock a bit more time to check down the WRs, TEs and/or any FB that releases down field. After re-watching the Utah game Ruddock definitely did a better job of that than I first thought but I'd still like to see him improve on that a bit more in week two because there were some glaring lock-ins on his part in the first game.
Staying with the passing game, I think it's important to note that OSU also lost three starters in their secondary from last year so if the MICHIGAN WRs and Ruddock can get on the same page and work out the timing/route running issues we saw against Utah then MICHIGAN could be in for a big day in the air.
Special teams could be a wash. The OSU kicker had 2GF from 30-39yd and 2XPM in week one and besides the push from Kenny Allen I was pleased with the MICHIGAN P/K.
Line moved to 17 and now I am seeing 14.5 today. Crazy movement this week.
If I had money on Michigan I would be as nervous as a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs. I'd be scared to pick them straight up, let alone to cover that spread.
Agree EJ. The movement to 17 must have really pushed the money to OSU. I could see the line dropping a little more to try to balance out the action. OSU and 17 seems like a great buy right now.
The first couple of seasons at Mich Bo's teams were great covering the spread as it took people awhile to catch on they we were just going to pulverize lesser teams. Later on we were pretty mediocre covering as favorites- we were good in this rare games where we were dogs. Michigan continued to have a pretty solid record of covering as un underdog until about halfway through Lloyd's tenure, when that fell off, although his final game (I think we were 10 point dogs to Florida) was a return to form.
sandyeggo_blue
Posts : 6174 Join date : 2012-01-23 Age : 45 Location : San Diego, CA
Take the homer hat off for a minute...what has you so confident? I know Harbaugh is our coach but the last 10 years have been brutal. OSU may not be Alabama but we have lost to the likes of Toledo and App St.
sandyeggo_blue
Posts : 6174 Join date : 2012-01-23 Age : 45 Location : San Diego, CA
Subject: Re: Michigan -15.5 Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:29 am
MgoBlue wrote:
Take the homer hat off for a minute...what has you so confident? I know Harbaugh is our coach but the last 10 years have been brutal. OSU may not be Alabama but we have lost to the likes of Toledo and App St.
sandyeggo_blue
Posts : 6174 Join date : 2012-01-23 Age : 45 Location : San Diego, CA
Subject: Re: Michigan -15.5 Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:25 pm
sandyeggo_blue wrote:
the line was up to OSU +16.5 the last I checked and I'm gonna take it. MICHIGAN wins by 3 TDs
you all love me
MgoBlue
Posts : 1480 Join date : 2013-08-01
Subject: Re: Michigan -15.5 Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:12 pm
For the record you also predicted a Michigan win vs. Utah.
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