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 Betting Line moves from -1 to -2

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joe

joe


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Join date : 2012-01-25
Age : 61
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Betting Line moves from -1 to -2 Empty
PostSubject: Betting Line moves from -1 to -2   Betting Line moves from -1 to -2 EmptyThu Dec 21, 2023 7:54 am

So Monday night the line for the game moved from -1 to -2. This is actually a huge move. It means that many millions of dollars are being bet on Michigan. So much is being bet on Michigan that they needed to move the line to get bets on the Alabama side. But typically lines move a half point at a time.

This line isn't affected by you or me betting a couple thousand. This line is moved because several millions more have bet on Michigan.

This does not relate to the final score of course but what it says is that the smart money, the guys you and I never see, are betting Michigan.

That's quite a change from all the media saying we don't have a chance.

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sandyeggo_blue

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Betting Line moves from -1 to -2 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Betting Line moves from -1 to -2   Betting Line moves from -1 to -2 EmptyThu Dec 21, 2023 4:18 pm

there is something to be said about the early line movement and all of the money that was being put on Bama yet Vegas was refusing to swap the lines.

Nearly all of the numbers that the oddsmakers use imply probability in favor of MICHIGAN and the bookies and Vegas are not coming off it. To me that says a lot.

I think they most likely moved the line to hedge the Bama bets but make no mistake they still have MICHIGAN winning.

For MICHIGAN to gain a point is a bit surprising given that the early betting is where the action is. I haven't heard any news about the players or otherwise that would typically move a line after the buik of the action has happened.

There could be one of two things happening here.... 1) money was coming in on MICHIGAN as the line dropped or 2)Vegas is panicking and trying to get more Bama money because some very large bets have recently been made on MICHIGAN

either way it's still very clear that Vegas still likes MICHIGAN

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wshoes

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Join date : 2012-10-17

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PostSubject: Re: Betting Line moves from -1 to -2   Betting Line moves from -1 to -2 EmptyFri Dec 22, 2023 12:19 pm

As of this morning on MGM's site (which has had it at Mich-1.5 for a long time), it showed that 63 percent of the money is on Alabama on the spread and about 60 percent favoring Alabama on the money line.

Sometimes when they move a line a half point they will changes the juice, for example from the typical -110 to maybe -105, or -120 in the other direction. You have to watch that because if they moved the line one way and the juice the other way, it isn't really moving the line in the big picture.
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PostSubject: Re: Betting Line moves from -1 to -2   Betting Line moves from -1 to -2 Empty

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