This weekend

Is there a game, or is this a hockey board now? WTF???

dwoody wrote:

Is there a game, or is this a hockey board now? WTF???

Both can be true

I am so cautious and guarded right now because I really don't know what to expect. My thoughts.

Keys to the game....

#1. Which ever team runs for more yards wins blah blah blah....

Of course this answer is played out. It's such a lazy boiler plate answer but the thing is that it's actually VERY true for this particular rivalry. I don't know if you can measure past Wins and Losses on a single stat for any two other teams in all of CFB like you can with this stat in this particular rivalry for these two teams.

In the last 50 meetings between these two the teams, the team with the most rushing yards has a 90% win rate (45 of 50). That is an absolutely mind blowing stat. So when people talk about running the ball in this game it actually means something.

IMO that bodes well for UM. I'll say it, I like Walker. He is one hell of a running back. I just think that the combo of Haskins and Corum will allow UM's backs to stay a bit more fresh and I also think that McCarthy is the wild card. I know he only gets 10 snaps a game but that kid can scramble and 90% of his playbook is him scrambling. Look for a rushing spark from him. Then take into consideration the UM Defensive side and I think you have to give UM the rushing edge which as I pointed out earlier bodes really well. I do worry a bit about Sparty's comments saying they intend to stack the box and make Cade beat them with his arm but more on that below.

#2. The team that doesn't turn over the ball blah blah blah....

This is also a lazy boiler plate answer and it is also so played out but guess what, Cade and this UM team are really good in this category. Maybe the best since the early to mid 2000s when Mike Hart was carrying the rock. Sparty is really efficient as well ranking 23rd with only 7 total turnovers. UM ranks 2nd with just four TOs. MSU and UM have 12 and 10 takeaways respectively so if Cade and the boys can hold on to the ball (which they seem to have proven they can) then I think UM can control the clock a bit and what's important about that is that they can keep the MSU offense off of the field.


#3. Special teams blah blah...

More boring cookie cutter answers but I think it should be noted that while both teams have competent kickers, IMO Moody > Coghlin.

Quick stat line....
Moody 2021 - 14/16 with a long of 52 (both misses came at 40+yds)
Coghlin 2021 - 10/15 with a long of 51 (missed 2 inside 40yd, 1 inside 50yd and 2 from 50yd+)

If the game comes down to a kick I am confident in Moody.



Now for my non-basic key to the game....

Dink and Dunk. Yep I said it. People are losing their minds about Michigan's lack of big play ability. At this point we all know that it's not a strong suit and we all expect that Sparty is going to try to go over the top several times to try to get the momentum going with big plays. They have two really good WRs so I'd expect for them to do so. I don't think Cade should even try.

The forecast says that it's going to be 53 deg and wet with 10-15mph winds. I say don't get fancy. Throw a lot of passes under 15yds. Keep the rhythm going with long sustained drives. Get Erik All the ball too.  Lull sparty into a short yardage pass coverage and then take a shot late.

If Sparty wants to stack the box then make sure Cade moves out of the pocket and keeps his passes to the outside. Maybe throw in a crossing route here and there behind the LBs that are close to the line but definitely not out near the safeties. Again, no need to get fancy. Stick to what is working.


prediction. I think UM covers the spread. I think they go over. I think there is a garbage score late.

UM 34 - MSU 20

The team that rushes for the most yards wins most games though not nearly at the percentages it has played out in this series. That is true for a number of logical reasons:

1) controlling the ball keeps your defense off the field and keeps them from getting tired.
2) Teams that are winning will run more because they are ahead versus passing more because they are behind.
3) A successful ground attack often makes your passing attack, more efficient as the opponent hast to bring safeties and/or LBs up to stop the run, the receivers have more room and less double coverage.

With respect to reason #2 above it might be interesting to see how these stats bear out in the first half of games or when the game is within one score, maybe the correlation between the team with the running edge and the winner MIGHT be a little less.

PS- I am going to the game, against my better judgment. The son of a very good friend of mine from North Carolina is coming up (huge Mich fan) and asked me to go with him. I know it is going to be a dreadful experience if we lose. I kinda like being in the controlled environment of my own home where if things take a turn for the worse I can get some exercise to ease the frustration.

I hear that! The last time I watched this game in public was that debacle in ‘15. Makes me sick just thinking about it. Anyway, I’m thinking we’ll know which way the game is going fairly early.