Phil Steele's take on the Bama game

Here are tweets from Phil Steele this morning regarding our season opener:
(I'm not going to put quotes around all these, because I unabbreviated some things, but just assume they're there)

* My computer for Bama/Mich calls for Bama to have 196-155 rush edge, a 245-182 pass edge outgaining them (441-337) with a 31-21 proj score.
* UM vs Bama Sept 1 - Dallas, TX Cowboys Stad. Since '99, the National Champ from the prev yr is 13-0 with an avg win of 45-13 in season opener.
* This will be the first reg ssn gm between the two tms as the prior 3 have all come in bowls. UM won the last gm ('99 Orange Bowl) 35-34.
* Bama did no face a dual threat QB like D Robinson last year and has just 5 returning starters from the best D in CFB last year but they still have my #3 rated D.
* UM is off 1st 11-win season since '97 and is a veteran team with 13 returning starters. The biggest matchup edge is UA's #1 OL vs a rebuilt UM DL with 1 returning starter.
* UM only faced 2 ranked teams away from home last year and were outgained 710-434 in those but got a fortunate win over VT in the bowl.
* Only once all yr in 2011 did Bama's D give up 2 TD's vs an FBS foe but that might happen here.
* Still games like this are won up front at the LOS and Bama has the edges. Roll Tide 31-17!

____

So, what say you in response??

Of course he's wrong about last year being our first 11-win season since '97... we went 11-2 in 2006.

24-21 UM.

Have to take my maize and blue blinders off for a second, as of 7/12/12, on paper, I would have to agree. Bama def. looked incredibly quick vs. LSU, and dispite only 5 returning starters, I'm sure they will reload. So, hate to put game in 1 persons hand, but DR as a senior, has to play the best game of his career. Passing is the key, if DR can spread out def., of course it opens up running game, Bama def then has to respect DR's running threat. Yes I know thats not earth shocking news, but if M becomes 1 dimensional, it could become very ugly.

I know its being played on a neutral site, but guessing crowd will be pro bama, maybe 70-30. M needs to come out strong, can't fall behind 10-0, 14-0, again game could turn ugly.

I'm have confidence Mattison will have def ready, after 7 months of preparing, hopefully he has something special planned for bama off.

I see where def. champs are 13-0 in opening games since 99', without looking it up, I guessing majority of games have been against cupcake u.
So I don't make a big deal of that stat.

Bama did not face a duel threat QB like DB last yr. was biggest statement. Thats the whole key of game as I stated above. Keep bama guessing on def., good things will happen.

Yr ago at this time I wasn't sure of Hoke, now I have 100% confidence in him. Between BH, GM, and AB, my gut tells me they will have a well prepared game plan. I'm sure they will be telling team heres our chance to shut up the SEC for atleast 1 night, show M FB is back and better than ever. If team buys into the idea they can beat Alabama in their back yard, I can see a M victory.

Similar to Orange Bowl, Alabama misses game tieing 37 yd FG last play of game. FINAL: MICHIGAN 31 ALABAMA 28

booboo wrote:

Bama did not face a duel threat QB like DB last yr. was biggest statement. Thats the whole key of game as I stated above. Keep bama guessing on def., good things will happen.

I think the last 'good' dual threat QB they faced was Cam Newton...

Alabama took early control of that game (hell, I think they were up by at least 21)...then Newton did his thing, the Alabama offense fell apart and Auburn stole a win, eventually leading to a NC.