OT: Opening Day

Although last night was a heart breaker, it can not spoil today. For today is OPENING DAY. Hope springs, flowers will start blooming. Every team has a chance, except the Cubs.

I traditionally take this day off work to watch my beloved Detroit Tigers take the field. The memories of my childhood spent listening to Ernie on the transister radio. Watching Trammel, Whitaker, Parrish and Morris in 1984 was one of the best summers of my youth.

Knowing how the Tigers have always linked me and my dad even when we didn't speak much.

Now we have Miggy, Verlander, Scherzer and Martinez. I am so excited to see how this season of change will play out. I love baseball. I love the Detroit Tigers.

GO TIGERS!

fishgoblue22 wrote:

Although last night was a heart breaker, it can not spoil today.  For today is OPENING DAY.  Hope springs, flowers will start blooming.  Every team has a chance, except the Cubs.  

I traditionally take this day off work to watch my beloved Detroit Tigers take the field.  The memories of my childhood spent listening to Ernie on the transister radio.  Watching Trammel, Whitaker, Parrish and Morris in 1984 was one of the best summers of my youth.

Knowing how the Tigers have always linked me and my dad even when we didn't speak much.  

Now we have Miggy, Verlander, Scherzer and Martinez.   I am so excited to see how this season of change will play out.  I love baseball.  I love the Detroit Tigers.  

GO TIGERS!

Fantastic post- I can't top or match that!

'shoes

The Tigers are quite a bit worse than they were a year ago at this point. I still think the Tigers should win the division, but I'm not as confident about it as I was a year ago.

Losing our shortstop was a big blow- which will really hurt our pitching and defense. Hope he makes it back this season.

It's a beautiful spring day here in Georgia. 72 and sunny. I didnt take the day off, but I would use any excuse to get out of work.

The Tigers should be fine this year, especially if they get healthy by the post season.

...And the post season (fall) is the LAST thing on my mind right now.

EJinGA wrote:

...And the post season (fall) is the LAST thing on my mind right now.

Why? It's always on my mind during the regular season. The goal is to reach the postseason.

Here's an oddity for y'all.

The Pirates just had a 4-2-5-1-6-3 putout against the Cubs.

Every player in the infield touched the ball.

Honestly not very good run-down fundamentals! lol

Ok, the announcer messed up. It was

4-2-5-1-6-5 for the putout. So not every player touched it.

Not surprised it happened against the Cubs.

Hail, I think the Tigers are stronger top to bottom in the lineup now. Last year was way top heavy. With Jackson moving down, the lineup is balanced.

They hit two triples today. That shows the overall increase in team speed. They didn't hit two triples in a game at all last year.

The bullpen is my only concern. If they can get the ball to Nathan in the ninth, then we are good. It was great to see a ninth inning with no anxiety today.

Today I did something Unusual for me but after last night I had to treat myself . So I took the afternoon off and watched the Tiger game. Verlander pitched pretty well except for the bases loaded walk. the new Tigers played pretty well. I dis-agree with Hail whats new there. I really don't think they are quite a bit worse , just different. Fielder was a good hitter but terrible on defense we picked him up because Martenez was hurt. He is healthy again so Fielder served his purpose at that time . The closer is a major plus from last year, Defensively they are way better. They will play more extra base games, and steal some putting pressure on defenses and pitchers..

Nice win today Spring is officially here now!

fishgoblue22 wrote:

Not surprised it happened against the Cubs.

Hail, I think the Tigers are stronger top to bottom in the lineup now.  Last year was way top heavy.  With Jackson moving down, the lineup is balanced.  

They hit two triples today.  That shows the overall increase in team speed.  They didn't hit two triples in a game at all last year.

The bullpen is my only concern.  If they can get the ball to Nathan in the ninth, then we are good.  It was great to see a ninth inning with no anxiety today.

Idk...... I disagree.

Starting pitching? Worse. I like what Smyley is and he can become, but he is not Fister yet.
Relief pitching? Worse. I base this on losing Smyley to the rotation.
Fielding? Better, especially with Iglesias in the lineup. This will really help our ground ball pitchers.
Batting? Worse. We are losing Fielder who is a guaranteed 100+ RBI guy, Peralta who hit .303 last year, and Infante who is a serviceable 2nd baseman for Alex Gonzalez/Jose Iglesias who are both terrible batters, Ian Kinsler who is good but not great anymore, and Castellanos who will be great, but is still a few years away from that.

Rajai Davis should be a platoon player because he can't hit righties. Last year he hit .228 against righties and .319 against lefties. Davis may be fast, but being fast doesn't mean much when you aren't getting on base. This situation will be better when Dirks returns from injury, but using Davis as an everyday play is not good.


Jackson
Hunter
Cabrera
Fielder
VMart
Peralta
Dirks
Avila
Infante

That was an elite lineup, regardless if there was speed or not. The team scored the 2nd most runs in the MLB last year at 796. This year, I'd expect the Tigers to score about 760-770ish.


Overall, the team is worse, IMO. I still think the Tigers should and will win the Division, though, and from there it's a "crapshoott". The MLB playoffs hardly ever crown the "best" team because of the ridiculously small sample sizes, so as long as the Tigers can get into the playoffs I feel like they can win the World Series.

Jackson is not a leadoff hitter.  He will now be more productive in his role down the lineup.  VMart is a 100 RBI guy batting behind Cabrera.  Look at 2011.  He won't hit as many HRs as Prince, but he will hit more consistantly.  I like Dirks a lot, but he is a platoon outfielder.  To expect any more than that from him is a streatch.  Kinsler will be an improvement at the top of the order.  Jackson will be better than Avila at the 5 spot, and I think Castellanos will be a a hitting force by the end of the season.

Avila didn't hit in the 5 spot..... VMart did.

1. Jackson .272
2. Hunter .304
3 Cabrera .348
4. Fielder .279
5. VMart .301
6. Peralta .303
7. Dirks .256
8. Avila .227
9. Infante .318

Here is their lineup this season with ESPN's projected batting averages.

1. Kinsler .275
2. Hunter .278
3. Cabrera .328
4. VMart .300
5. Jackson .276
6. Avila .252
7. Castellanos .239
8. Gonzalez .223
9. Davis .247


I don't see how you can look at the 2nd lineup and say it's better.

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

Avila didn't hit in the 5 spot..... VMart did.

1. Jackson .272
2. Hunter .304
3 Cabrera .348
4. Fielder .279
5. VMart .301
6. Peralta .303
7. Dirks .256
8. Avila .227
9. Infante .318

Here is their lineup this season with ESPN's projected batting averages.

1. Kinsler .275
2. Hunter .278
3. Cabrera .328
4. VMart .300
5. Jackson .276
6. Avila .252
7. Castellanos .239
8. Gonzalez .223
9. Davis .247


I don't see how you can look at the 2nd lineup and say it's better.

Projected batting averages? Really? OK, here are mine:

1. Kinsler .280
2. Hunter .302
3. Cabrera .344
4. VMart .333
5. Jackson .301
6. Avila .230
7. Castellanos .276
8. Gonzalez .240
9. Davis .247

That should do it. Set it in stone.

Hail the offensive numbers may not be the same , but the defense is going to be way better. That in itself will help Porcello who is a ground ball pitcher and Smyly, is an unknown who knows how he will adapt to starting . Speed factor lets them get double's and triples as oppose to station to station baseball. To be honest I was happy to see fielder gone. Cabreara  back where he belongs Castellanos will take some time at 3rd we'll see. The infield is much improved defense wise and not that much offense lost. Kinsler will hit as good as Infante. Fister is the question mark, But Nathan is way more better closer and if the tigers get 6 -7 inn they will be okay.

I think Smyly will put up Fister like numbers. Plus, he has started before, 2012. He made 18 starts and finished 4-3, although wins and losses aren't all that matter for a pitcher. He knows how to pitch.

Even with Gonzalez at SS, the defense is an upgrade over Perralta. Miggy is a huge upgrade defensively over Prince at 1st. Castellanos is an upgrade over Miggy at third. I think Kinsler/Infante are interchangeable at 2nd.

Yesterday was a great example of the new team. Two triples. Collins going from 1st to 3rd on a base hit. Who could do that last year? Jackson and Dirks. That's about it.

I loved watching the Tigers last year, and every year, but there is a fundamental change in how they will play the game. No longer are they a station to station team. This is a team that will take the extra base and manufacture runs. Should be fun to watch.

fishgoblue22 wrote:

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

Avila didn't hit in the 5 spot..... VMart did.

1. Jackson .272
2. Hunter .304
3 Cabrera .348
4. Fielder .279
5. VMart .301
6. Peralta .303
7. Dirks .256
8. Avila .227
9. Infante .318

Here is their lineup this season with ESPN's projected batting averages.

1. Kinsler .275
2. Hunter .278
3. Cabrera .328
4. VMart .300
5. Jackson .276
6. Avila .252
7. Castellanos .239
8. Gonzalez .223
9. Davis .247


I don't see how you can look at the 2nd lineup and say it's better.

Projected batting averages?  Really?  OK, here are mine:

1. Kinsler .280
2. Hunter .302
3. Cabrera .344
4. VMart .333
5. Jackson .301
6. Avila .230
7. Castellanos .276
8. Gonzalez .240
9. Davis .247

That should do it.  Set it in stone.

I used an objective site that makes money from projections for my list. It was the easiest projections for me to list because I was already looking at ESPN's site. Would you rather I use ZiPS or Streamer? Ok, I will.

ZiPS:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-detroit-tigers/

1. Kinsler .271
2. Hunter .287
3. Cabrera .317
4. VMart .291
5. Jackson .261
6. Avila .237
7. Castellanos .277
8. Gonzalez .223
9. Davis .257


I'm not sure if you are trying to be an asshole or what with the "Really?" comment. We have different opinions about the lineup, so I'm providing 3rd party projections from people who do projections for a living. It is a much better indication than either of us throwing our guesses out there.

ZiPS - "The work of Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory, the ZiPS projections uses weighted averages of four years of data (three if a player is very old or very young), regresses pitchers based on DIPS theory and BABIP rates, and adjusts for aging by looking at similar players and their aging trends. It’s an effective projection system, and is displayed at FanGraphs for off-season and in-season projections."

I do agree the defense will be much improved, which is great. I just don't think you guys realize how much worse the offense should be. Infante and Kinsler are basically washes. We are basically trading Fielder, Peralta, and Dirks for Castellanos, Gonzalez, and Davis.

The difference between Fielder and Castellanos hugely favors Fielder.
The difference between Peralta and Gonzalez hugely favors Peralta.
The difference between Dirks and Davis favors Dirks.

I like the Tigers a lot and you guys know how optimistic of a fan I am. I very much think this team should still win the division, I just don't think it's a better team than we had last year.

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

I like the Tigers a lot and you guys know how optimistic of a fan I am. I very much think this team should still win the division, I just don't think it's a better team than we had last year.

I don't think it is a worse team either.

The Tigers scored 796 runs last season. You think our lineup is just as good. How many runs do you think the Tigers score this season?

Too many times last season the Tigers lost because they could not scratch out more than singles against good relief pitchers, runners that died on the bases when the big boppers didn't come through. They needed on-base speed, which is why Davis and Kinsler are here. Defense will be better with Castellanos at third and Miggy at first, and Peralta range at short was only so-so. Plus he cheated. The old formula failed totally against Boston. Change is good. This is a better team for winning games in late innings v good pitching.

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

The Tigers scored 796 runs last season. You think our lineup is just as good. How many runs do you think the Tigers score this season?

I don't care how many runs they score as long as they score more than the other team. A 1-0 win is just as good as a 10-1 win. All that matters is wins and losses.

So let's say this team scores 730 runs and finishes the season at 94-68. Last year they were 93-69 with 796 runs. Which team is better?

fishgoblue22 wrote:

Jackson is not a leadoff hitter.  He will now be more productive in his role down the lineup.  VMart is a 100 RBI guy batting behind Cabrera.  Look at 2011.  He won't hit as many HRs as Prince, but he will hit more consistantly.  I like Dirks a lot, but he is a platoon outfielder.  To expect any more than that from him is a streatch.  Kinsler will be an improvement at the top of the order.  Jackson will be better than Avila at the 5 spot, and I think Castellanos will be a a hitting force by the end of the season.

I agree on all points. I hated Jackson at leadoff, poor on base percentage and struck out too much. Managers have made that mistake for years putting their fastest guy at leadoff for that reason only.

'shoes

fishgoblue22 wrote:

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

The Tigers scored 796 runs last season. You think our lineup is just as good. How many runs do you think the Tigers score this season?

I don't care how many runs they score as long as they score more than the other team.  A 1-0 win is just as good as a 10-1 win.  All that matters is wins and losses.

So let's say this team scores 730 runs and finishes the season at 94-68.  Last year they were 93-69 with 796 runs.  Which team is better?

Stop moving the goalposts. Runs scored is a very commonly used indicator of a team's offense. A 10-1 win shows the offense played better than a 1-0 win.

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Zips projects for 87 wins this season.
Vegas has the Detroit Tigers at 89.5 wins on the season.

Can the Tigers out-perform those numbers? Absolutely. Can they under-perform those numbers? Absolutely. The fact is, though, that every objective projection service I've seen has the Tigers as a worse team than last seasons team regardless of an increase in stolen bases.

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Zips projects for 87 wins this season.
Vegas has the Detroit Tigers at 89.5 wins on the season.

Can the Tigers out-perform those numbers? Absolutely. Can they under-perform those numbers? Absolutely. The fact is, though, that every objective projection service I've seen has the Tigers as a worse team than last seasons team regardless of an increase in stolen bases.

Not once did I ever mention that runs scored is what counts. That's all you. You are moving the goal posts and using projections that mean absolutely nothing to make a point. Your point is they won't score as many runs. My point is who gives a flying rats ass about total runs. I never, in any of my posts, said this team is better overall. I said it is different.

fishgoblue22 wrote:

I loved watching the Tigers last year, and every year, but there is a fundamental change in how they will play the game. No longer are they a station to station team. This is a team that will take the extra base and manufacture runs. Should be fun to watch.

Do I like this team, yes. I liked last season's team too. It is a different team. Now take the projections and flush them down the crapper because they mean absolutely nothing. Look at the UM Basketball team this year, where were they projected to finish before the season? Exactly.

Also, have you guy seen the movie Moneyball? First of all, if you haven't, check it out. It is a really damn good movie. Second of all, there is a very big concept they use and it's as simple as "He gets on base". You guys are severely, severely under appreciate the importance of being on base more often.


Further, this talk of more doubles and triples is cool and all, but is it substantiated? In the past three seasons:

Last season:
Ian Kinsler: 31 doubles, 2 triples, 13 HRs in 545 at bats.
Omar Infante: 24 doubles, 3 triples, 10 HRs in 453 at bats.

Big gain there? No....

How about Short Stop?
In Alex Gonzalez last 758 ABs before this season: 1 triple, 34 doubles, and 20 HRs.

Impressive? Hardly....

Well then Rajai Davis certainly has to be the one providing all these extra doubles and triples, right?

Last season:
Rajai Davis: 331 at bats, 2 triples, 16 doubles, 6 HRs.


What gives?

Fish, you said that you think the Tigers have a stronger top to bottom lineup this year. A stronger top to bottom lineup should equate to more runs. Runs scored is a very accepted way of rating a teams overall offense.

Regarding flushing "projections" down the toilet... seriously? Do you realize how ZiPS comes up with their projects? I'll post it again....

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/projections/

"The work of Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory, the ZiPS projections uses weighted averages of four years of data (three if a player is very old or very young), regresses pitchers based on DIPS theory and BABIP rates, and adjusts for aging by looking at similar players and their aging trends. It’s an effective projection system, and is displayed at FanGraphs for off-season and in-season projections."


These projections aren't just baseless guesses. They are formulated based on past performance and future trends. Why don't you think past performance or future trends are important when predicting how well this team will bat?