UM Basketball 2014/2015

guestavo, if you are here, how do you see the rotation looking next season (assuming McGary stays)?

I would like to see something like this:

PG: Walton (30 mpg), Albrecht (10 mpg)
SG: LeVert (35 mpg), Albrecht (5 mpg)
SF Irvin (30 mpg), *late signee* (10 mpg)
PF Chatman (25 mpg), Donnal (15 mpg)
C McGary (30 mpg), Donnal (10 mpg)

That is a solid 8 man rotation, which Beilein played this year. Bielfeldt would again be available as a 9th man to eat up a few minutes/fouls at the PF or C position. The wildcards here are Ricky Doyle and D.J. Wilson. I think whichever one is more ready will outplay Bielfeldt as the "9th man" while the other redshirts. The nice thing is that Donnal's versatility means there won't be a logjam if Wilson is ready but Doyle is not or vice versa.


So how I see it....

Depth? Slightly more. This actually gives us slightly more depth than last year, because outside of GRIII Michigan didn't have anybody that could effectively play the 4.
Experience? Slightly less. Last years 8 man rotation had 1 SR, 1 JR, 4 SO, 2 FR while this year would have 3 JR, 2 SO, 3 FR.
Talent? Even. This isn't going to sit well for the "Hail is such a homer!" crew.

PG.... better. SO Walton and JR Albrecht > FR Walton and SO Albrecht.
SG.... even. JR LeVert and JR Albrecht = SO Stauskas and SO Albrecht.
SF.... worse. SO Irvin and FR *late signee* < SO LeVert and FR Irvin.
PF.... push. SO GRIII is better than any PF we will have in 14/15.... but the trade off is actually having a capable backup.
C.... better. JR McGary and FR Donnal > SR Morgan and JR Horford.


There are some question marks with the team (Will McGary be able to play 30mpg? Will Walton and/or Irvin improve? Can Chatman effectively play a lot of minutes at the 4?).... but there is also quite a bit to like. Going into last season, we didn't know who (if anyone) could step up and be THE guy. Stauskas did. I think we are all pretty comfortable with LeVert being THE guy next season. Also, last season we went into not knowing how well Walton would be. This season, we know that he has a pretty high floor and a high ceiling.


As long as McGary returns, I think this team can be a top 10 team. I don't see them beating out Wisconsin for the BTT, but I think Michigan would be a top 3 Big Ten team.

Now the youngest team in the B1G, got even younger. We'll miss the outside shooting of Stauskas, hope Belien finds an inside presence. Now they have 4 schollies open

actually that puts us at two open scholarships.

senior = 0
junior = 4 (mitch, beilfeldt, spike, lavert)
soph = 2 (Zak, Walton)
fresh = 5 (Chatman, Donnal, Doyle, Hatch, Wilson)

Hail, I would say your analysis is on the optimistic side, but then....John Beilein. So I'm not going to argue. One thing I will say, I'm not as confident about their bigs next year. Last year they had a lot of depth when McGary was healthy. Next year, even if MM comes back, they'll be thin up front. I never worry about the guards under Beilein, they always seem to thrive, but I don't recall a big thriving in his first season under Beilein. GRIII is probably the closest, but he's really a wing. The most likely solution to that worry would be if Donnal blows up.

If McGary stay I think we'll be okay maybe a little better.


C   McGary Doyle
PF Chatman Donnal
SF Lavert Irvin
SG Irvin Albrieght
PG Waltin  Albrieght

Bench
Albrieght
Wison
Chatman
Doyle

jjabilene wrote:

Hail, I would say your analysis is on the optimistic side, but then....John Beilein. So I'm not going to argue. One thing I will say, I'm not as confident about their bigs next year. Last year they had a lot of depth when McGary was healthy. Next year, even if MM comes back, they'll be thin up front. I never worry about the guards under Beilein, they always seem to thrive, but I don't recall a big thriving in his first season under Beilein. GRIII is probably the closest, but he's really a wing. The most likely solution to that worry would be if Donnal blows up.

Idk... After McGary went down (ie. the team that won the Big Ten and made the Elite , our bigs were Morgan, Horford and then Bielfeldt. I think that McGary is significantly better than Morgan and I think that Donnal will be at least as good as Horford. Mark Donnal was an ESPN Top 100 recruit, so it isn't like he doesn't have talent.

If McGary leaves, then it's a different story.

Oh, and no ones ever accused me of being pessimistic

Better than a team that won the B1G by 3 games? I'm not ready to think that.

fishgoblue22 wrote:

Better than a team that won the B1G by 3 games? I'm not ready to think that.

better? I agree with Fish, there is no way I'd jump on that right now.

but hail's OP clearly shows scenarios in which UM isn't gonna be far off next year.

If MM comes back I can see an elite 8 push.

WOW, way too early for that right now   

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

jjabilene wrote:

Hail, I would say your analysis is on the optimistic side, but then....John Beilein. So I'm not going to argue. One thing I will say, I'm not as confident about their bigs next year. Last year they had a lot of depth when McGary was healthy. Next year, even if MM comes back, they'll be thin up front. I never worry about the guards under Beilein, they always seem to thrive, but I don't recall a big thriving in his first season under Beilein. GRIII is probably the closest, but he's really a wing. The most likely solution to that worry would be if Donnal blows up.

Idk... After McGary went down (ie. the team that won the Big Ten and made the Elite , our bigs were Morgan, Horford and then Bielfeldt. I think that McGary is significantly better than Morgan and I think that Donnal will be at least as good as Horford. Mark Donnal was an ESPN Top 100 recruit, so it isn't like he doesn't have talent.

If McGary leaves, then it's a different story.

I don't think Morford was that big of a dropoff from McGary. Morgan, in particular, really stepped up, not as good as MM but not a huge step down since we had the two of them to fill the gap. We also played an undersized (but very skilled) GRIII at the four. I'm not sure he will be that easy to replace. The hope is Donnal will step in, but he is still unproven. Other than that you have true freshman or another undersized option in Irvin. I still think we'll be fine, but I suspect people may be undervaluing the two upperclass centers we had last year.

You know what is interesting. 5 years ago we wouldn't even be talking basketball. after 3 years we are analyzing, rather they will have a drop off or not Belien has made this team interesting and competitive again . What a sweet situation.

the artist formally known wrote:

You know what is interesting. 5 years ago we wouldn't even be talking basketball. after 3 years we are analyzing, rather they will have a drop off or not Belien has made this team interesting and competitive again . What a sweet situation.

+1

jjabilene wrote:

hailtoyourvictor wrote:

jjabilene wrote:

Hail, I would say your analysis is on the optimistic side, but then....John Beilein. So I'm not going to argue. One thing I will say, I'm not as confident about their bigs next year. Last year they had a lot of depth when McGary was healthy. Next year, even if MM comes back, they'll be thin up front. I never worry about the guards under Beilein, they always seem to thrive, but I don't recall a big thriving in his first season under Beilein. GRIII is probably the closest, but he's really a wing. The most likely solution to that worry would be if Donnal blows up.

Idk... After McGary went down (ie. the team that won the Big Ten and made the Elite , our bigs were Morgan, Horford and then Bielfeldt. I think that McGary is significantly better than Morgan and I think that Donnal will be at least as good as Horford. Mark Donnal was an ESPN Top 100 recruit, so it isn't like he doesn't have talent.

If McGary leaves, then it's a different story.

I don't think Morford was that big of a dropoff from McGary. Morgan, in particular, really stepped up, not as good as MM but not a huge step down since we had the two of them to fill the gap. We also played an undersized (but very skilled) GRIII at the four. I'm not sure he will be that easy to replace. The hope is Donnal will step in, but he is still unproven. Other than that you have true freshman or another undersized option in Irvin. I still think we'll be fine, but I suspect people may be undervaluing the two upperclass centers we had last year.

That is a huge misconception, IMO. I think McGary is significantly better than Morgan. Even though Morgan "really stepped up" this year, he still had less PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, and BPG than an ailing McGary. Morgan's and Horfords production in 33mpg was similar to an ailing McGary's production in 24mpg. If a healthy McGary was playing those 33 minutes, you'd see a significant increase in production across the board.

"Morford":
33.9 minutes per game
10.2 ppg
9.2 rpg
1.1 apg
1.1 bpg
0.7 spg

McGary (with an injured back):
24.6 minutes per game
9.5 ppg
8.3 rpg
1.5 apg
0.8 bpg
1.9 spg

Mitch got a lot of "hockey assists"- the pass before the pass that led to the basket- too. Great outlet passer.

'shoes