Should we be worried?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/five-reasons-michigan-will-lose-to-georgia-in-the-college-football-playoffs/ar-AARJUUr?ocid=msedgntp

Personally, I don't think that we stand much of a chance. However, all we need to do is score and we've done better than sparty.

You do not think we have much of a chance against Georgia?

Who the fuck have you been watching the last 14 weeks? Geez that is an idiotic statement.

joe wrote:

You do not think we have much of a chance against Georgia?

Who the fuck have you been watching the last 14 weeks? Geez that is an idiotic statement.

Georgia is light-years better than anyone that we have played this year, sans ohio state (but they are still better than ohio state).

joe wrote:

You do not think we have much of a chance against Georgia?

Who the fuck have you been watching the last 14 weeks? Geez that is an idiotic statement.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/by-the-numbers-michigan-football-vs-georgia/ar-AARMjv2?cvid=8cf271b1dccc4da1ae6acee00c9b0a40&ocid=winp1taskbar

Georgia is not as good as you think. They play in the weaker division of the SEC. Call them Iowa. but better.

But I think you overestimate Georgia.

joe wrote:

Georgia is not as good as you think. They play in the weaker division of the SEC. Call them Iowa. but better.

But I think you overestimate Georgia.

True, they play in the SEC east which is the lesser of the 2 SEC divisions. However, you need to consider that they were ranked #1 the majority of the year. Look at their defensive statistics. Sure 'bama made them look pedestrian but that's 'bama, they do that to everyone.

I never said that we don't stand a chance against Georgia, we do. Granted it's a small chance but it exists. 'bama we have no chance against I'm afraid unless there is some divine intervention.

Georgia is not as good as you think. They play in the weaker division of the SEC. Call them Iowa. but better.

But I think you overestimate Georgia.

Last few opponents of theirs going backwards:
GaTech 3-9
Ga Southern
Tennessee 5-5
Mizzou 4-5
Fla 4-4

Before that they played teams that were decent, Arkansas and Kentucky. Those are the only 2 tough ones. Auburn was rated but ended up 6-6.

I just do not think they are that good.

joe wrote:

Georgia is not as good as you think. They play in the weaker division of the SEC. Call them Iowa. but better.

But I think you overestimate Georgia.

Last few opponents of theirs going backwards:
GaTech 3-9
Ga Southern
Tennessee 5-5
Mizzou 4-5
Fla 4-4

Before that they played teams that were decent, Arkansas and Kentucky. Those are the only 2 tough ones. Auburn was rated but ended up 6-6.

I just do not think they are that good.

Your point loses some luster when you say Auburn isn't that good, they are in the SEC west AND they gave 'bama all they could handle.

Good points, Joe.

dwoody wrote:

Good points, Joe.

So, you're seriously going to make me rub it in if Georgia bears Michigan? Wow I hope that I'm wrong. However, I never specifically said that we would lose, just that we should be worried.

We're playing with house money at this point and haven't overachieved like this since 2011 or even 1997 (in terms of results vs pre-season expectations). I'm a happy man no matter what happens though I'll acknowledge that a blow-out loss would be tough. I don't think that happens unless we dig a hole early and have to play catch-up and can't run our normal offense.

wshoes wrote:

We're playing with house money at this point and haven't overachieved like this since 2011 or even 1997 (in terms of results vs pre-season expectations). I'm a happy man no matter what happens though I'll acknowledge that a blow-out loss would be tough. I don't think that happens unless we dig a hole early and have to play catch-up and can't run our normal offense.

I agree. I honestly don't see a blow-out loss, although I guess that a 34-17 loss is possible. If we win it'll more than likely be 17-13. However, if we get by Georgia 'bama is a different story. Yes, it is house money at his point but still exhibiting some concern is acceptable. That's all I'm doing.

All that we have to do in my opinion for this to truly be a success is score in the playoffs. Say we lose 35-3 sure I'll be disappointed but hey, we scored in the playoffs. That's better than sparty.

You sound exactly like a sparty. SMH

On paper this looks like a Georgia win. Not sure why the spread is up to Michigan plus 8 but I'll bet that all day. I honestly believe michigan wins pulling away late.

recruiting and player talent over the last 4 years clearly goes to Georgia but I think Michigan is the better team. At least they are playing like a more complete team at this time. And I don't say that just because Georgia lost their last game. If you look at the last few games Michigan is rolling and playing better ball.

the UM O line vs the Georgia D line is going to be a battle. I give them the edge because of their quality depth. Harbaugh and Gattis are going to run run run and it will be like days of old with Hoke. it will be like banging our heads into a wall but eventually it will setup the pass and the trick play. Georgia's secondary was exposed against bama and I think Michigan has players to expose them also.

Michigan's D will hold them to a low score. Georgia doesn't really have that great of an offense. Their starting QB is a walkon for christ's sake. They didn't put up and decent points on any decent teams this year.

Michigan is #1 in plays over 50 yards this year and it wasn't one guy doing it. Michigan had almost a dozen guys with plays over 50yds so Michigan has a lot of weapons for them to think about.  Inversely Georgia only has a handful of big plays over 50  yards all year. Michigan is clearly the more explosive team.

Michigan special teams vs their special teams isn't even close. this is where Michigan's biggest advantage is and I think it will play a part. Whether it's field position, field goals or punt and kick off coverage Michigan is the #1 team in the nation on special teams and they are clearly the better team.

I know it's been nearly two decades since Michigan could say they won anything but the same can be said for georgia. I thought their arkansas and Tennessee wins were impressive but Michigan has played a tougher schedule and has had twice as many good wins.

Michigan can win  this one and if they do people will start to get on the bus and think that UM can win the next game too. If they go through the buckeyes to get to the B1G championship game, Iowa to the win the B1G, Georgia in the playoffs to get to the NC and Bama to win it all it will be far and away the most impressive run to close out a season. That wouldn't be a bad way to close out a year for a team that started the season unranked.

joe wrote:

You sound exactly like a sparty. SMH

A sparty wouldn't score.

The more I look at it the better I feel.

Over analyzing the numbers on paper will get you in trouble here because on paper Georgia looks damn near unbeatable. But we just saw that they are beatable. Georgia is one hell of team but I think Michigan matches up better with them than they do with bama and cincy.

I'm telling you that if Michigan can run the ball, even if it is for 1 yd at a time, and wear down their D while finding ways to move the chains with plays in space then Michigan will win this game. Georgia will eventually get caught sleeping against the run and Michigan will bust open some big plays.

Michigan doesn't have to run for 150yds to win this game and Haskins doesn't have to score 5TDs because it's going to be a low scoring game as it is. If Michigan scores 30 they probably win. I don't think Georgia can score over 28 against UM without the D falling apart.

One thing I will say is that this is the first year in a LONG time that I have been completely surprised and happy with the creativity of the play calling. There were at least a dozen times this year that the offense ran a play that I did not see coming and they were probably successful on 75% of those plays.

You can bet your paycheck that Georgia is preparing for every one of Michigan's sets. They will know where to line up when Edwards is set wide or when All is lined up next to the tackles.  If Gattis can put in new plays that we haven't seen yet or incorporate new routes from those existing sets then I think Michigan has the players to keep the ball moving.

I'm not going to get out in front of my skis just yet but at this point I feel better going into this game than I did going into the buckeye game.

one more thing to mention.... Cade McNamara becomes a national name after this game. Not because he's going to throw for 400yds and 4TDs but because the rest of the country is going to get a chance to see what we've see all year. The dude is calm cool and collected. He doesn't turn the ball over and he's quick to forget about mistakes and move on. He's a text book field general. He isn't flashy but his reliability and his leadership will show.

The radio shows talk all day about the flash of the Youngs and Strouds of CFB but people respect the play of maestro with ice in his veins. A lot of fans are going to watch this game and say to themselves (or out loud) that they wish they had a QB like Cade playing at their school.

Sandy you’re right about Cade … reminds me of Krenzel when the bucknuts won the NC … great D , great running game … and I think Cade is a much better QB … both managed games and were not flashy but made no major miscues!

I feel more confident going into this game than I did against OSU...

I think this one will be an old school, back alley brawl. But, it won't be the three yards and a cloud of dust team that will win. Instead, it will be the team that can get three yards consistently but has 1-2 more big plays that wins. Why does that make me feel, at least, somewhat hopeful? Michigan has more big plays than any team in college football this year. (Shocking statement, I know.)

We just need to get loose a few times while limiting UGA's big plays. Overly simplified game plan of course, but that's how I see it.

Guy w/nothin better to do wrote:

dwoody wrote:

Good points, Joe.

So, you're seriously going to make me rub it in if Georgia bears Michigan?  Wow I hope that I'm wrong.  However, I never specifically said that we would lose, just that we should be worried.

You’re going to talk shit to a fellow fan if the team you’re BOTH fans of loses because he thought they’d win? I’m assuming this is 2ndcomingofBo or whatever your name was.

MichiganFootball13 wrote:

Guy w/nothin better to do wrote:

dwoody wrote:

Good points, Joe.

So, you're seriously going to make me rub it in if Georgia bears Michigan?  Wow I hope that I'm wrong.  However, I never specifically said that we would lose, just that we should be worried.

You’re going to talk shit to a fellow fan if the team you’re BOTH fans of loses because he thought they’d win?  I’m assuming this is 2ndcomingofBo or whatever your name was.

Slappy's do us no good whatsoever.

And btw, I'm not the only person who sees some flaw in the philosophy that Michigan will beat Georgia.

https://saturdaytradition.com/michigan-football/michigan-sticking-with-travel-schedule-for-orange-bowl-even-after-college-football-playoff-make-changes/

Yes, I know that Finebaum has traditionally been a Michigan hater but this year he has praised Harbaugh religiously. AGAIN, I'll say that I hope that I am wrong to be concerned about the Georgia game.

Guy w/nothin better to do wrote:

...And btw, I'm not the only person who sees some flaw in the philosophy that Michigan will beat Georgia.

https://saturdaytradition.com/michigan-football/michigan-sticking-with-travel-schedule-for-orange-bowl-even-after-college-football-playoff-make-changes/

Yes, I know that Finebaum has traditionally been a Michigan hater but this year he has praised Harbaugh religiously.  AGAIN, I'll say that I hope that I am wrong to be concerned about the Georgia game.

this isn't remotely true. It wasn't until after the buckeye win that finebaum walked back on the harbaugh hating. He bashed harbaugh constantly all season prior to that win then praised harbaugh for about a week or so until just after winning the B1G championship game against Iowa. He is currently back on the SEC bias bus and saying that Michigan has no shot against georgia.

At this point, I’m more worried about the game being played at all than the outcome.

Guy w/nothin better to do wrote:

MichiganFootball13 wrote:

Guy w/nothin better to do wrote:

dwoody wrote:

Good points, Joe.

So, you're seriously going to make me rub it in if Georgia bears Michigan?  Wow I hope that I'm wrong.  However, I never specifically said that we would lose, just that we should be worried.

You’re going to talk shit to a fellow fan if the team you’re BOTH fans of loses because he thought they’d win?  I’m assuming this is 2ndcomingofBo or whatever your name was.

Slappy's do us no good whatsoever.

And btw, I'm not the only person who sees some flaw in the philosophy that Michigan will beat Georgia.

https://saturdaytradition.com/michigan-football/michigan-sticking-with-travel-schedule-for-orange-bowl-even-after-college-football-playoff-make-changes/

Yes, I know that Finebaum has traditionally been a Michigan hater but this year he has praised Harbaugh religiously.  AGAIN, I'll say that I hope that I am wrong to be concerned about the Georgia game.

Your last comment ruined any sliver of credibility you had.

No kidding-"praising religiously" consisted of maybe one day when he gave them props for beating OSU.

edit- and by the way the whole rhetorical question posed by the post: "should we be worried ....", doesn't make any sense in this context. Should we be worried about playing a team that was ranked #1 almost all season, is still the overall favorite to win it all, and has been favored over Mich by between 7-8.5 pts since the match-up was known? Worried in the context that: the solid favorite could beat us? Should we be worried about a result that the vast majority of the public expects?

This question would make more sense in reference to Georgia, posted on a Georgia message board- i.e. should they be worried about underdog Michigan?

this is going to be one hell of a football game.


https://sports.yahoo.com/statistical-breakdown-georgia-michigan-stack-170058018.html


I'll try to find the special teams matchup stats and post those since this article doesn't include them.

this is the best is could find

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overallst/2021


Special teams Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (STR) combine kickoff return, kickoff, punt return, punt, and field goal efficiency into one overall rating, represented as the team's standard deviation above or below average.

Kickoff return efficiency (KRE) is scoring value gained or lost per kickoff return.

Kickoff efficiency (KE) is scoring value gained or lost per opponent kickoff return.

Punt return efficiency (PRE) is scoring value gained or lost per punt return.

Punt efficiency (PE) is scoring value gained or lost per opponent punt return.

Field goal efficiency (FGE) and opponent field goal efficiency (OFG) is scoring value gained or lost per field goal attempt.

Field position is measured as the average distance from starting field position to end zone on offensive drives (OFP) and opponent offensive drives (DFP); net field position (NFP) is the difference between these values.

These two teams are so evenly matched across the board that I think special teams is going to play a big role in the outcome of the game and Michigan holds a decisive edge.

Our special teams are the best I think Michigan has has that I can remember. And I know we have a history of playing starters on special teams. This year it starts with the kickers but all phases have been excellent this year. Did we have 2 or 3 punt blocks? That is a real damning statistic. I heard/read that if YOU block a punt of theirs you have an 84% chance to win. It is just that big of a play.

joe wrote:

...I heard/read that if YOU block a punt of theirs you have an 84% chance to win. It is just that big of a play...

I have never heard of that but that is a hell of stat if true.