MICHIGAN vs Penn St

some thoughts on the PSU game this week. feel free to add to them or comment on my bullet points



- PSU pass D is really good. PSU is only allowing 159 pass yds per game. At the same time MICHIGAN is averaging 224 pass yds per game. But Jake has played lights out the last two games. Can he stay hot? I have a feeling we are going to need him and the receivers to have another good game. The only downside I see with Jake catching fire is that I fear it may cause us to become one dimensional because the run game isn't looking too hot right now.


- staying on that point, the good news is that Penn State's run D isn't that great and they are allowing 152 yds per game on the ground right now. The bad news is that MICHIGAN's run game isn't that good and is only rushing for 168 per game. We need a big game from the O line and the backs. It's very cliche and nothing new to MICHIGAN fans, but I expect a lot of running to set up the pass. Sione Houma should have a good game. I hope that Isaac is out of the dog house because with the health concerns of Smith/Green/Johnson, this would be a great game for Ty to come back and prove his worth to the team. If Isaac remains in the dog house then I think we see a lot of Higdon this game. I read somewhere this past week that the staff really wants to keep Jabrill fresh for the o$u game so I doubt we see him taking a lot of snaps on offense this game.


- An O line prediction I want to make, I think we see a lot of blocking/releasing downfield packages from the tight ends this game. Penn State has a DE that is leading the nation in sacks right now but I don't know his name. I just know he's good. I'd bet that MICHIGAN will double team him most of the game with a TE lined up over tackle. My limited knowledge of the game has me thinking that is prime positioning for a release and catch by the TEs.


- Our D line is really thin and MICHIGAN will rotate in some unproven question marks this week. The good news is that that the PSU O line isn't that good. The PSU O line is ranked #120 in the nation in sacks allowed (3.3 per game) and #109 in tackles for loss (7.3 per game). More good news is that PSU's passing offense isn't that great either. We know what our secondary is capable of so that should help the D line and LBs focus on the run. If the D line and LBs do put it together this week and do a decent job with the run game then that could force PSU into a lot of third and longs which will have the secondary licking their chops all day.


- I sure hope the special teams doesn't have another breakdown in punt or kick coverage because like last week, it could prove to be the spark in a trap game like the one MICHIGAN will play saturday.


- my key stat of the game, Penn State has the 2nd worst 3rd down conversion rate in the nation while MICHIGAN has the 3rd best defensive 3rd down conversion rate in the nation. This should help to get the D off the field, allow MICHIGAN to eat some clock on O by running the ball, yada yada yada. You all know the rest.


My prediction is MICHIGAN 34 Penn State 23.

I think Michigan is going to have to run the ball, and take time off the clock, I am some what uneasy about the defense . That front line has issues because of the injuries. Hakenberg is a solid QB and if given time will carve us up.

you're right, Hackenburg is solid. in fact I think this is his last game at happy valley because I think he declares for the draft. but his O line is not doing him any favors and his receivers aren't great either. our corners should lock them down. It would be nice to get pressure on him but I'm not getting my hopes up with the questions we have on the D line.

PSU really lacks playmakers on offense other than Barclay. Another thing that I think helps UM'S defense is the PSU is one of the slowest teams in the country at running plays. This is the type of offense that UM has been able to handle. Let's hope they didn't spend the idle week putting in an up tempo offense.

UM 31 PSU 21

the lack of dline pressure exposes what has been the Defenses poorest position ... linebacker play ... Morgan has been good but he has been exposed on many plays in coverage .... Bolden has been very poor all year ... Ross has been inconsistent .... agree totally that the slow play of PS offense plays into Meechigans hand ... as well our secondary should lock down their average WRs allowing us to crowd the line to stop their running game ... as good as PS is and being at home this game scared me less than the Indiana game

sandyeggo_blue wrote:

you're right, Hackenburg is solid. in fact I think this is his last game at happy valley because I think he declares for the draft. but his O line is not doing him any favors and his receivers aren't great either. our corners should lock them down. It would be nice to get pressure on him but I'm not getting my hopes up with the questions we have on the D line.

Another reason this game bothers me is because its in Happy Valley. If this game was in AA I really thing Michigan would be favored by more.

BOLEACH7 wrote:

.... agree totally that the slow play of PS offense plays into Meechigans hand ... as well our secondary should lock down their average WRs allowing us to crowd the line to stop their running game ...

Yep good point. at this point you have to think they are going to crowd the line and sell out to the run and lean on the man coverage by the DBs to take away the pass game.

fishgoblue22 wrote:

....Another thing that I think helps UM'S defense is the PSU is one of the slowest teams in the country at running plays.  This is the type of offense that UM has been able to handle.  Let's hope they didn't spend the idle week putting in an up tempo offense...

UM 31 PSU 21

Good catch Fish!

Top five fewest offensive plays per game
1. Army 60.4
2. Syracuse 62.6
3. LSU 62.7
4. Penn St 62.8
5. Georgia 63.6

will we see a lot of Peppers on O ... or will he see few snaps to save him for bucknuts .... hopefully we have some semblance of a running game so JR doesn't have to have a career game again for the win ...

One of PSU's best DB's is out for the season, got hurt/reinsured their last game.

sandyeggo_blue wrote:

umichfaninpa wrote:

One of PSU's best DB's is out for the season, got hurt/reinsured their last game.

-10 for The Simpsons reference.

a somewhat worrisome article given the inconsistency we've seen from the O line this year.

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2015/11/17/michigan-football-penn-state/75971708/

Don't read anything the freep prints.