10 True and RS Freshmen that will make an impact this fall for UM.

Thoughts?

http://isportsweb.com/2013/07/16/michigan-football-10-impact-freshmen/

#2 Kyle Kalis and #4 Ben Braden are the key in my eyes. Our tackles are going to be all Big Ten and Lewan is going to be All-American. It's our interior that I'm worried about. I think Kalis and Braden are going to be guys for us to watch.

I also might add the FR / RS FR backup list to watch...

1. Shane Morris
2. Erik Magnuson
3. DeVeon Smith/Drake Johnson
4. Ben Gedeon
5. Jake Butt (depending on how they use AJ Williams)

Good call, Sandy, but frankly, I think the guy "between" them----Jack Miller---merits even closer scrutiny, and will be an even bigger factor in whatever we achieve this season. Center is, in the opinion of most, the second-most-vital piece of the OL, behind left tackle (who has the QB's back and blindside on most passing plays...but happily we're blessed with a GEM there in TL).

Mr.Miller has to come along quickly. He doesn't have nearly the shoes to fill that his predecessor had (filling Mealer's is nothing like filling Molk's), but there's so much resting on his broad shoulders nonetheless.

That raises an interesting question, who plays left tackle next year after Taylor is gone? I'm not gonna stress over it as ?I would like to enjoy the '13 season but I'm curious.

Yes, 2nd, that is an interesting (mildly speaking) question...and I'm sure as hell glad we won't have to answer it this year!  (As well we could have).

To repeat what's been said a trillion times, his rejection of the NFL's millions goes to show in what high esteem Taylor holds Michigan, his teammates, his coaches, and the entire "Michigan difference".

2ndComingOfBo wrote:

That raises an interesting question, who plays left tackle next year after Taylor is gone?  I'm not gonna stress over it as ?I would like to enjoy the '13 season but I'm curious.

It's Erik Magnuson hands down. Not even a question in my eyes. That's why I do see him getting quite a bit of playing time and not just mop up duty. Hoke will throw him in there for a series or two each game to get him ready for next year. I'd bet my paycheck on it. He'd be playing this year if Lewan were in the NFL. That is THE reason I had to put him on the backup RS FR list.

Just to add a bit more, I think we may see Logan Tully-Tillman a few snaps this year as well. He came out of high school so raw but I've heard he's done a complete 180 with his body transformation and that he's working just as hard on his skill set and he's progressing nicely.

Also, I want to start this next statement with a disclaimer that I AM IN NO WAY TAKING AWAY FROM TAYLOR LEWAN or his accomplishments but both Magnuson and this year's class OT Juwann Bushell-Beatty are better prospects out of HS than Lewan was. Now will they be anything near what Lewan is or accomplish as much? Given what Lewan has accomplished, it's a long shot but they certainly have the tools. J B-B is going to be a monster, you watch.

sandyeggo_blue wrote:

Also, I want to start this next statement with a disclaimer that I AM IN NO WAY TAKING AWAY FROM TAYLOR LEWAN or his accomplishments but both Magnuson and this year's class OT Juwann Bushell-Beatty are better prospects out of HS than Lewan was. Now will they be anything near what Lewan is or accomplish as much? Given what Lewan has accomplished, it's a long shot but they certainly have the tools. J B-B is going to be a monster, you watch.

That goes to prove my point that in the end stars have nothing to do with how good/bad a person may be. Thanks for immortalizing me in your signature line hail...

2ndComingOfBo wrote:

...That goes to prove my point that in the end stars have nothing to do with how good/bad a person may be.  Thanks for immortalizing me in your signature line hail...

Well hold on a second 2nd.... Taylor was still highly rated out of high school. He was a solid 4* as was Magnuson. Magnuson was just rated as a bit better of a prospect at the position (OT) than Taylor was. My statement was made to compare apples to apples (4* to 4*) not apples to oranges (5* to 2*). I should have made that clear in my first post.

And FWIW, JBB is a middle of the pack 3* right now. I don't think he's going to hit the camp circuit this off-season so don't expect his stock to rise short term but the scouts fully expect him to be a solid 4* by signing day after his play next year. So don't star gaze on him just yet either

2* vs 5* of course matters more often than not, but they are not the end all, be all of people...

2ndComingOfBo wrote:

2* vs 5* of course matters more often than not, but they are not the end all, be all of people...

right.... of course I agree that they stars are not the end all say all. I always have agreed with that but to say that Lewan's four star rating meant nothing isn't accurate. The percentages don't lie, the higher rated kids tend to be better in college and tend to make the pro's more often than the lower ranked kids. The numbers back that up, PERIOD. Again, that's not to say that a 2 or 3 star kid has no chance. That would be stupid.

So basically stars don't completely matter. If you are a 5-star you are not guaranteed to be in the NFL, just like if you are a 2-star you're not guaranteed to forever be a spectator. It's a guessing game...

If you hit on 11 in blackjack, you aren't guaranteed to hit 21.

If you hit on 17 in blackjack, you aren't guaranteed to hit 21.

Yet, all odds say to double down on 11 and stay on a hard 17. Why? Because playing the odds USUALLY pay offs. Likewise, I'll take my odds on a 5* out of HS over a 3* of a HS. Nothing is ever certain, but give me the odds all day.

Here comes another statistics argument that proves 2nd didn't take a Stats class in college (or that, god forbid, Michigan didn't provide him with basic Stats knowledge).

So you're bring Sabermetrics to college football recruiting? I know it's hot and really boring (no football right now) but come on...

Just simple stats.

Sounds like your are grasping at straws....

(These percentages aren't exact but they are close, I don't feel like digging up the article for 2ndComing to ignore again).

If 40% of all 5*s become All-Americans....
and
If 5% of all 3*s become All-Americans....

then

If you have 100 5*s you would have 40 All-Americans.
If you have 100 3*s you would likely have 5 All-Americans.

so therefor

The probability that a 5* becomes an All-American is greater than a 3* becoming an All-American.

That is seriously high school math, man. I expect better from a big, bad, Michigan grad.

Isolated instances (ie. you naming 3*s that became an AA or 5*s that busted don't chance the probability. They are accounted for in the probability).

I am not even a math major and I have to teach Michigan grads basic math? What a shame.

2nd is obviously glued to his view of it, so I would suggest saving key strokes, and not trying to sway his opinion.

This forum is getting chippier than a Wings/Hawks game.  

But probability really doesn't matter when a 2-star was selected first over-all this year and the first 5-star didn't go until the ninth selection.

There you go choosing isolated events (a statistics no-no) to support your hypothesis.

Probability is used to predict future outcomes. We are predicting which players (2*s or 5*s) are more likely to BECOME draft picks. You have to use a much larger sample size than one...or two... or three...or four... to make accurate predictions.

How you not understand this is beyond me? What was your major at U of M? Home Economics?

Here, let's use a scenario you aren't emotionally attached to.

Which NFL draft round do you think will provide more future Pro-Bowlers.
Round 1 or Round 6?

(Don't side step the question with all your nonsense. It is a simple question).

Tom Brady was selected in Round 6 and he is arguably the best QB of all time.

To quote an idiot from a somewhat evil location:

BOOYAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That was my next point.

So since Tom Brady was selected in the 6th round, your hypothesis is that more 6th rounders will become pro-bowlers than 1st rounders?

(and obviously you didn't answer the question).

Do you understand what isolated instances are?
Or what sample size means?

Larry Bird was White. Larry Bird is arguably the best small forward of all time.

White people are as good at basketball as black people.

(see how dumb it is?)

Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback of all time.

Therefor, 6th round quaterbacks are likely to be better than 1st round quarterbacks.

Either you are the world's biggest moron, or you are the world's best troll.

Ryan Leaf was a #1 draft pick (#2 overall)....

How many times do I need to say this?

IT DOESN'T MATTER!

Learn to use a single post instead of multiple consecutive posts...

So you wouldn't be mad if the Lions (or whatever NFL team you like) traded their 1st round pick for a 6th round pick straight up? Because you can get someone like Tom Brady in the 6th and might get someone like Ryan Leaf in the 1st?

lol you are a f*cking idiot.